for a more recent update on former hurricane paloma, CLICK HERE
Chilly, Crummy Day: As expected, clouds will wrap around and provide a cloudy day. Okay, I said that a few days ago but I was off one day. Clouds will dominate on Sunday and we will be hard pressed to get out of the 40’s. Sunshine is back on Monday with a bit of a moderation into the low 50’s. Boundary returns late Tuesday with clouds increasing and a few light afternoon showers will turn to general rainfall Wednesday into early Thursday. Friday we are a few degrees warmer than average with a cold front poised to move through Friday night.
Who Turned out the Lights? On this date in 1965, the lights went out in the Northeast. Biggest power
outage in US history. It’s cause was found to be from a relay station at Niagara Falls. Here is a history of the 1965 blackout that was particularly difficult since it began during rush hour in New York. I remember my father being stuck in the RCA building in New York and the lights being out at home. The moon was huge and we sent my sister out to investigate what that large object was…we weren’t so sure it was a moon. Maybe it was a UFO because, according to some conspiracy theorists, the big power outage in 1965 was caused by a UFO. Here is the UFO angle. Never mind that it happened again in 2003 and never mind that it is acknowledged that our electric grid is antiquated and susceptable to catastrophic, large scale failure. No…it was an UFO. Just analyze these UFO reports from Nov 9, 1965 yourself!
Hurricane Paloma: HURRICANE PALOMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 620 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 AT APPROXIMATELY 620 PM EST…2320 UTC…HIGH-RESOLUTION GOES SATELLITE DATA AND A RECENT POSITION FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT…PLUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA…INDICATE THAT MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA LIKELY MADE LANDFALL NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 MPH…200 KM/HR. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Paloma had topped out at about 145 mph Saturday afternoon but was in
the process of backing off as it approached land. The pressure had risen to 952 mb. That tells me that the strong upper winds to the north was beginning to interact with the storm such that, instead of enhancing the storm, it was beginning to mess it up. You can see the result of the upper winds quite clearly on the satellite image by comparing the northern half of the storm to the southern half. This stong upper level westerly wind will continue as Paloma moves over the eastern third of Cuba. So, the upper part of the storm will get ripped to shreds by the shearing environment and the low level circulation gets torn up by the land of Cuba with some pretty significant mountains. In short, Paloma is behaving as previously outlined and all indications are that it will continue to do so. If not, my guess is that it gets ripped up, loses its head and its leftover then either drifts east or disappears. This guy is sorta similar to Charlie in that it has a very compact windfield…the strongest winds were pretty ferocious but the radius of the hurricane winds were maybe 25 miles. Unlike Ike, which had a core of winds that weren’t all that strong but had a huge area of some 250 to 300 mile radius of hurricane winds.
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING… THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT…SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT…AND A RISING MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB. 125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY… BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP…THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN SOON. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH…HOWEVER…IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE COAST. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND. THIS WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS…WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO…BUT HIGHER THAN…THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. THE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON…BUT A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PALOMA MAY START TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST…BUT STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA. PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.5N 78.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W 85 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W 60 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W 30 KT…DISSIPATING
72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$ FORECASTER BLAKE