FOR A MORE RECENT UPDATE ON HURRICANE OMAR, CLICK HERE
link to hurricane omar radar loop. just CLICK HERE, navigate to puerto rico and hit “animate”
The way our weather has shaken out is that we have a boundary come through on Thursday. The bulk of the rain will come after midnight on Wednesday and carry into midday Thursday. Rainfall totals will generally be less than a half inch. Temperatures will be decidedly cooler. Late Friday we have a little short wave wander through in the flow that will increase clouds. We are backing off a bit from the prospects of rain on Friday and if we get anything on Friday night it will be just scattered sprinkles…there appears to be too much dry air working in to support anything overly significant. But pointedly though will be the sharply cooler conditions. We’ll only make it to around the 60’s degree mark Saturday despite plenty of afternoon sunshine. After a Saturday morning start in the low 40’s, Sunday morning look for frost in many areas with Louisville being one of the warmer spots with a start around 39. Outlying areas may be in the low to mid 30’s. Sunday the sun helps us move up to around 70 as we get on the west side of a big fat area of high pressure.
Hurricane Omar: Hurricane Omar is a nice looking storm and continues to push toward the Virgin Islands and will move through overnight and through Thursday morning. The islands on the
northeastern fringe of the Caribbean will get a pretty good whack from this storm that will most likely have winds well in excess of 100 mph. Fortunately, it will move along at a decent clip so that rain totals will not be too extreme, but water-logged Puerto Rico still may be adversely affected by copious amounts of rain. Omar has continued to deepen as the pressure has dropped to 967 mb and winds have
increased to 115 mph with higher gusts. The strengthening perhaps is the most significant aspect of Omar as this guy moves through the islands on the upswing, not in a deteriorating cycle. Once it passes, it will go into the north-central Atlantic where it will eventually encounter colder water and perhaps a frontal zone. This guy may end up affecting Europe though in some form…not tropical but perhaps formidable.
Tropical Depression 16 is muddling its way through Central America. While it may not become Tropical Storm Paloma, it will bring difficult rains to Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Academically the most interesting thing about this guy will be if it remains intact enough as it moves into the Pacific to regenerate. If it did, it would receive a new name.
The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Omar Forecast Discussion can be found at the bottom of the post along with the associated spaghetti models. At the top of the page you will also find a link to a Hurricane Omar Radar Loop. You simply navigate away from the Ohio Valley default down to the Caribbean. You will get images from the Puerto Rico radar. To loop the image, simply hit the “animate” button.
On This Date in History: In the first half of the 19th Century, performers went around the country
performing acts that showed the side effects of nitrous oxide, also known as “laughing gas.” A Georgia physician, Dr. Crawford Long attended a party in which the foolishness took place and was asked by friends if he could make up a batch for their own private fun. Long suggested the use of ether instead as he found it quite suitable for the desired effects. At that point, all across the Peach State laughter at parties was heard of people chuckling at each others stumbling and bumbling while high on ether. Long’s interest was piqued. He noted how people didn’t feel any pain.
One of the fellow party makers was James Venable who had a tumor. Now, at the time, the pain associated with surgery was totally based on how fast the surgeon could do his work. So, Long convinced Venable to try out the gas before he had his tumor removed. He agreed and on March 30, 1842 the tumor was removed successfully without pain. But, Long did not publish his findings right away as he was not fully convinced. Long’s conservative approach was probably a good idea.
Dentist Horace Wells in Hartford, CT attended a laughing gas show and recognized the potential of nitrous oxide. So, he jumped the gun and took his case to the Massachusetts General Hospital where the demonstration promptly went asunder and Wells was ridiculed as a fraud. That led to Dr. William Morton.
Dr. Morton had worked with Dr. Wells and had learned of the promise of ether’s numbing properties from chemist Dr. Charles Jackson. He tried it out on some patients to much success and he too went to Massachusetts General Hospital. He said he had discovered a new wonder drug. What he really had was the very same ether that Wells had, but he camouflaged it with aromic oils so it would alter the oder. On October 16, 1846 the chief of surgery at Massachusetts General removed a neck tumor and also performed a leg amputation. The surgeries were pain free and the age of anesthetics was here. Morton patented the formula hoping to get rich.
But, Jackson and his supporters claimed they were the true discoverers. Morton in 1868 went to New York to defend his position against supporters of Jackson. He had a seizure and died. Upon seeing Morton’s tombstone that gave Morton credit for anesthetic, Jackson went insane and spent the rest of his life in an asylum. Then we have the fate of Dr. Wells, who jumped the gun with his demonstration. He became addicted to chloroform and his mind eroded. He ended up in jail and somehow got ahold of chloroform, soaked a clothe in it and covered his face after opening up his arteries. He quietly and painlessly bled to death.
As for perhaps the true pioneer of the use of anesthetics, Dr. Crawford Long? The one who was not bold enough to publish his findings? He continued as a general practitioner until 1878 when he died making a house call. Perhaps his caution and conservative approach was reflective of his life as those who went for the fame and fortune all died in bizarre and untimely manners. I wonder if those 3 would think that it was worth it?
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL152008 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
JUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT…AND AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB. ON THIS BASIS…OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION…SHOWING INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL. OMAR HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/17. IN THE SHORT TERM…THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FORECASTING A 15-20 DEGREE LEFT TURN THAT SO FAR HAS NOT OCCURRED. OTHER THAN THAT…THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD. OMAR IS EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…THEY FORECAST A SECOND TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 HOURS. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP OMAR ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION WITH ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS…WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES OMAR OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OMAR TO PEAK AT 105 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER… OMAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN…WITH THE STORM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT ABOUT 96 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT STRONGER WINDS…POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY HIGHER…CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.4N 64.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.4N 63.1W 105 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 22.2N 61.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 59.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 34.0N 53.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 41.5W 55 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0000Z 47.0N 25.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN