Tropical Storm Omar Shows Up; Tropical Depression 16


Atlantic Visible Satellite 1014 1415Z

Atlantic Visible Satellite 1014 1415Z

Tropical Storm Omar became a hurricane on Tuesday night (click here)

As I had indicated earlier, the two systems worth watching are the two that are on the upswing. Former Tropical Storm Nana is worthless and it’s partner, Invest 90 is a long way from becoming name worthy.

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Depression 15, as anticipated, is now Tropical Storm Omar. It is just

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

meandering in the Eastern Caribbean and while it dawdles, it should get picked up by some trofiness that will pick it up and move it north and then north-northeast. The models prog the system as a developing hurricane and the satellite imagery looks fairly worthwhile. The track will make it a rain and wind maker for the islands and then be generally a concern for maritime interests.

Invest 99 has turned into Tropical Depression 16 and may

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11AM

become Tropical Storm Paloma. The interesting facets of this system are its

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

proximity and also the forecast track. It is just off of the Honduran coast and is forecast to move to the northwest and then west, basically paralleling the Honduran coast. With this forecast track, it is progged to become Tropical Storm Paloma. However, should its central core move slightly west of the forecast track, then it will be on shore and development would be tough, if not impossible. Either way, its slow movement will produce a whole mess of rain in Honduras and Nicaragua and surrounding Central American nations and those areas are notorious for not being able to handle extreme rain very well. One note of concern is that as this guy moves slowly, the more time there would be for steering currents to change…perhaps a trof building down or a ridge building in, that would turn this guy north. While only a handful of the models advertise this and it is contrary to the official forecast track, the slow movement must cause one to keep that possibility in the back of one’s mind as such an event might create a scenario that would eventually affect the US and this time of year, that scenario becomes a little more likely than at earlier times in the hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center Discussions for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar along with spaghetti models are below:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.
Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH
BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  HOWEVER...IT
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN
HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD
APPEAR LIKELY.  OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND
THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.6N  83.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  83.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  85.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N  87.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE
INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST
TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR
GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2
AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 14.0N  69.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  68.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N  67.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.3N  65.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.8N  60.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  58.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 33.0N  55.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: