As I had indicated earlier, the two systems worth watching are the two that are on the upswing. Former Tropical Storm Nana is worthless and it’s partner, Invest 90 is a long way from becoming name worthy.
Tropical Depression 15, as anticipated, is now Tropical Storm Omar. It is just
meandering in the Eastern Caribbean and while it dawdles, it should get picked up by some trofiness that will pick it up and move it north and then north-northeast. The models prog the system as a developing hurricane and the satellite imagery looks fairly worthwhile. The track will make it a rain and wind maker for the islands and then be generally a concern for maritime interests.
Invest 99 has turned into Tropical Depression 16 and may
become Tropical Storm Paloma. The interesting facets of this system are its
proximity and also the forecast track. It is just off of the Honduran coast and is forecast to move to the northwest and then west, basically paralleling the Honduran coast. With this forecast track, it is progged to become Tropical Storm Paloma. However, should its central core move slightly west of the forecast track, then it will be on shore and development would be tough, if not impossible. Either way, its slow movement will produce a whole mess of rain in Honduras and Nicaragua and surrounding Central American nations and those areas are notorious for not being able to handle extreme rain very well. One note of concern is that as this guy moves slowly, the more time there would be for steering currents to change…perhaps a trof building down or a ridge building in, that would turn this guy north. While only a handful of the models advertise this and it is contrary to the official forecast track, the slow movement must cause one to keep that possibility in the back of one’s mind as such an event might create a scenario that would eventually affect the US and this time of year, that scenario becomes a little more likely than at earlier times in the hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center Discussions for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar along with spaghetti models are below:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE. HOWEVER...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD APPEAR LIKELY. OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.6N 83.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 83.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 85.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.3N 87.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 16.2N 89.0W 55 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK ...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2 AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 14.0N 69.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART