Tropical Storm Omar Looks Better While Tropical Depression 16 Looks Lost


Atlantic IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Atlantic IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

for a more recent update on hurricane omar with a link to a radar loop, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Omar Became a Hurricane Tuesday Night (click here)

There really isn’t much different from the midday action regarding the tropics.

Tropical Storm Omar Vis Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar Vis Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar is looking pretty impressive on the visible satellite and will probably becomea hurricane. It won’t pose a problem unless you are heading to the Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Barbuda or Antigua. After it passes through the Antilles it goes into the Central Atlantic where it will die a slow death in cold waters. Really, aside from the islands, it is a maritime concern.

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Depression 16 is so broad that its difficult to pin point a center but from the Satellite I’d wager that its just off the Northeastern Honduran Coast. The official forecast has it moving on the edge of a ridge to the

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

north and moving generally parallel to the Honduran coast and then into Belize. The amount of land interaction will determine whether or not it becomes Poloma. It may be interesting to see if it survives enough to re-emerge over the Pacific and cause trouble. The only concern here, and its not that great, is that the storm moves so slowly that the ridge to the north breaks down and allows for motion to the north, which would then create a scenario for a threat to the US, primarily Florida. But there is a general consensus in the modeling data that does not support such a movement at this time…but its worth taking note. Otherwise, Nana is off the board and Invest 90 is pretty worthless at the moment.

Here is the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for 5pm for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar. Also find spaghetti models.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT…RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB…BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE…
THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY…AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR…THE FLIGHT CREW
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS…EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS…WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS RACE
OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST…WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS…BUT
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING…POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION… IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS…GFDL… AND HWRF MODELS…AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE…OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT…
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.0N 68.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 68.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 66.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 62.1W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 58.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 31.1N 55.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 49.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER…A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY…WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS. FOR THE
TIME BEING…WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY…BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS…
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT…AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY…THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS…WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING. A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER…THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.7N 83.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.9N 84.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 86.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 88.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

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