Viva Texas!! Tropics Showing Some Signs of Life


Our weather is on track.  After the record high of 87 on Sunday, clouds will be filling in and temperatures will be backing down but it will remain unseasonably warm.  A cold front plods across the nation but most of the rain should be post-frontal.  So, showers will begin to break out late Wednesday in to Wednesday night.  Clouds will stick around on Thursday and a secondary system on Friday may bring some light showers.  While we drop back to the 70’s for the second half of the week, the stuff on Friday will be the most significant in that it will mark a change in the temperature regime as the long wave (jet stream) pattern shifs and for the weekend we get cooler,perhaps a bit cooler than seasonal averages.

On This Date in History:  The Republic of Texas voted to pass a new state Constitution on Oct. 13, 1845.  In doing so, the independent nation paved the way for annexation into the United States.  There had been rumblings during the previous 10 years that Texas should become a state but there was opposition from northern interests that allowing the state in would shift the balance between slave states and free states would shift to the favor of the “slavocracy.” In November, the election victory of James K. Polk was seen as a mandate from the nation to annex Texas.  But, outgoing President John Tyler wanted to get the credit so he got congressional support for annexation.  Texas became the 28th state in the Union on December 29, 1845. 

Now, Mexico had long disputed the boundary of Texas, claiming that the proper southern boundary was the Nueces River while the Texans claimed it was the Rio Grande River.  The land in between the two rivers was pretty sparsely populated and no one did much about it.  But, the Mexicans warned the Americans that annexation of Texas would be an act of war.  The Mexican minister to Mexico was so convinced of war that he demanded his passport so he could return.  Turns out he was right, in response to the annexation of Texas, the Mexicans put troops in the disputed terrirtory and the Americans sent troops to meet them…thus within a year of the welcoming of the state of Texas into the American fold, war had erupted.  Like the conflict with Texas, this battle was led by Santa Anna who promptly lost even more territory to the United States. 

Texas is the only state in the Union to have formerly been another country and, if you ask a Texan, is the greatest state of all time.   Don’t ask me…you may not like the answer that you get.

TD 15 Visible Satellite 1013 1645Z

TD 15 Visible Satellite 1013 1645Z

Nana Spaghetti Model 1013 12Z

Nana Spaghetti Model 1013 12Z

Tropics:

I told you about the disturbance way out in the Atlantic. I wasn’t too enthused with it because there was such little chance that it would affect anything but maritime interests.  Well, it became Tropical Storm Nana and is now already Tropical Depression Nana.  As I had oulined previously, storms that for that far out this time of year have a tough time of getting to the US because frontal activity increases across the North Atlantic.  This guy’s only hope was to move west and underneath any trofiness, but it refused to do so, moved northwest and has gotten sheared apart and is now caught up in the flow of a frontal boundary which will take the remnant out to sea. 

TD 15 Forecast Track 1013 11AM

TD 15 Forecast Track 1013 11AM

Then there is Tropical Depression 15.  For several days, I had monitored the

TD 15 Spaghetti Model 1013 12Z

TD 15 Spaghetti Model 1013 12Z

NOGAPS model which wanted to take Nana toward Puerto Rico and then north but the secondary system, now TD 15, would slide farther west perhaps into the Gulf.  But, again, frontal boundary activity moving across the Continental US will make that difficult.  The spaghetti models generally go along with a  scenario of TD 15 moving North and then Northeast as it gets caught up in the flow ahead of approaching trofs. However, it is forecast to become a hurricane. When it becomes a tropical storm it will be Omar. The satellite presentation looks pretty impressive. Then there is Invest 99…its out there too.  Here are the discussions below:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

TD 15 Spaghetti Intensity Model 1013 12Z

TD 15 Spaghetti Intensity Model 1013 12Z

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY…I WOULD WAIT FOR THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
START ADVISORIES…BUT IN THIS CASE…THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE
DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND
VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR…BUT IS FAVORABLE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12
TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME
MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT…THE GFDL AND HWRF
FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR
A DAY OR TWO…NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT
PERIOD. THEREAFTER…GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.8N  69.6W    30 KT
12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N  70.0W    35 KT
24HR VT     14/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W    45 KT
36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  69.0W    50 KT
48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N  67.5W    55 KT
72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N  63.5W    65 KT
96HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N  59.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

AS EXPECTED…WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON NANA.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT DOWNGRADING NANA TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A DAY OR SO.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AT ABOUT 6 KT.  NANA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 16.8N  39.8W    30 KT
12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.1N  40.6W    30 KT
24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N  41.7W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N  43.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     15/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: