Cooldown Won’t LastThe weather here is on track. Wednesday morning found temperatures fairly uniform in the upper 40’s. The airport was 48. Look for lows Thursday morning in the mid 40’s and perhaps on Friday morning too. We climb back to the mid 70’s on Friday and Saturday with upper 70’s to near 80 on Sunday following the passage of a warm front Saturday night. Early next week we get back to the low to maybe the mid 80’s.
Tropical Storm Laura Epitaph: Tropical Storm Laura is gone. From the report at the bottom of the page, you can read about its demise. If you look at the satellite image from early Thursday morning, you can see what the discussion is talking about. Its tough to find Laura. Its generally in the center of the photo with a little swirl apparent with no convection. But the Spaghetti model still takes whats left of it to the British Isles and some eventually take it to Germany. The discussion mentions that some models want to re-intensify it. While it may be an academic issue of interest, otherwise its a European question.
So Who Got Us in this Mess? While the Congress tries again to solve the financial problems and questions, inevitably we will be bombarded with who is to blame. Here is an interesting video that may shed some light, but keep in mind, while it’s 8 minutes long it has been edited. The first part is Rep. Richard Baker from 2006 and the rest is from a Congressional hearing from 2004. I won’t editorialize…you see if it provides some insight.
The Senate Votes: The Senate on Wednesday night passed a bill concerning the current financial situation. It is interesting though, because according the Article One, Section 7 of the Constitution, only the House of Representatives must originate bills for raising revenue and House precedent has established that this means “raising revenue and appropriating the same.” But, the Senate apparently does not agree yet, normally, if the Senate tries to originate such legislation, when its sent to the House, the House routinely returns it to the Senate with a “blue slip” which indicates that the House rejects the bill on procedural terms without ever considering it. Now, since the House first originated this bill and the vote failed, the Senate will claim that the House originated it and now they will vote on it with amendments that will define what in many regards will be a new bill, even though the House never passed the original. I don’t think that’s what the founders intended. I doubt if the House will “blue slip” this one though. So, even if it is unconstitutional, it will probably get voted on in the House anyway. It wouldn’t be the first time that the government has violated the Constitution. President Jefferson violated the Constitution several times and no one seemed to mind. Its funny when the public decides the Constitution is important and when it is not. Anyway, here is part of Article One, Section 7.
- Section 7: All bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with amendments as on other Bills.
- Every bill which shall have passed the House of Representatives and the Senate, before it become a law and be presented to the President of the United States; if he approves, he shall sign it, but if not he shall return it, with his objections to that House in which it shall have originated, who shall enter the objections at large on their journal, and proceed to reconsider it. If after such reconsideration two thirds of that House shall agree to pass the bill, it shall be sent, together with the objections, to the other House, by which it shall likewise be reconsidered, and if approved by two thirds of that House, it shall become a law. But in all such cases the votes of both Houses shall be determined by yeas and nays, and the names of the persons voting for and against the bill shall be entered on the journal of each House respectively. If any bill shall not be returned by the President within ten days (Sundays excepted) after it shall have been presented to him, the same shall be a law, in like manner as if he had signed it, unless the Congress by their adjournment prevent its return, in which case it shall not be a law.
On This Date In History: On October 2, 1919 President Woodrow Wilson was giving a speech in Pueblo Colorado when he suffered a massive stroke. Daily reports came assuring the public that the President was recovering nicely. Truth was, he was partially paralyzed and nearly blind. But, his wife Edith refused anyone access to the President. Cabinet members, trusted aides, Congressmen and even the Vice-President. She claimed she had no role in decisions but did determine what was important and when to present it to the President. That sounds like a role to me. When Woodrow Wilson was scheduled to address Congress, instead a message was sent to the legislative body made up of snippets from Cabinet reports with corrections penciled in by Edith. Many referred to it as a “Petticoat Government.”
Edith Wilson was a rather odd match for Woodrow Wilson, who was a PhD who had been the President of Princeton and Governor of New Jersey. She married Wilson in 1915 after his first wife Ellen died. In contrast to the bookish Wilson, Edith had little formal education, in 20 years of living in Washington had never visited the White House and could not recall whom she voted for in the 1912 election….an election that her husband won. But, she became politically quite adept and came to rule the roost in the White House. 44 years after standing by her husband at his second inaugural, she attended the inauguration of President Kennedy. When she died a year later, the New York Times said that “some went so far as to characterize her as the first woman President of the United States.” To this day, there are many historians who agree with that assessment.
If you ever think that a presidential candidate’s wife doesn’t matter, remember Edith Wilson.
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL122008 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008
ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION REMAINS…THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FOR LAURA TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE…AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. I RATHER LIKE THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER’S TERM POST-TROPICAL…WHICH SIMPLY MEANS NO LONGER TROPICAL…TO DESCRIBE WHAT LAURA HAS BECOME. THERE IS NOT REALLY ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF FRONTAL STRUCTURE YET TO CONSIDER LAURA EXTRATROPICAL IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE…AND SOME USERS MIGHT INFER A WEAK SYSTEM IF WE USED THE TERM REMNANT LOW…WHICH IS MOST-COMMONLY APPLIED TO DECAYING SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 KT…PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER. A TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME REINVIGORATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF LAURA IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS. OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE…HOWEVER… SHOWS THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS…BUT FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN CARRYING A TRACK ONLY OUT TO 72 HOURS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 46.5N 46.5W 40 KT…POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 02/0000Z 48.9N 45.6W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 02/1200Z 52.2N 43.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 03/0000Z 55.0N 39.8W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 56.0N 33.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z 56.5N 20.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1200Z…ABSORBED
$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN