Remnant of Ike Poses an Interesting Challenge-Ryder Cup Looks On Par


Ike IR satellite 0914 345Z

Ike IR satellite 0914 345Z

Tropical Storm Ike Forecast Track 0913 11pm

Tropical Storm Ike Forecast Track 0913 11pm

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike including damage photos and video, CLICK HERE

For a Tropical Storm Ike Radar Loop as it moves across the southern plains, CLICK HERE. Navigate anywhere you wish in the nation to street level. Add clouds or lightning if you wish. Click “animate” to loop.

The remnant of Ike will give us a bit of a challenge on Sunday in the Ohio Valley. Late Saturday night the storm had a definite and fairly sound tropical structure with decent banding on radar. The satellite image wasn’t so impressive. The trouble is that the forecast claims that the storm will rapidly lose its tropical characteristics. Question is, when. I find it hard to believe that when its just to the west of Louisville at midday it would have totally gone extra-tropical. We will have windy conditions. We will have a low level jet pouring into the structure. We will have warm moist air. I suspect that we will have a decent condition for some of the banding that produces isolated tornadoes. Not like they had farther

Severe Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Outlook Sunday

Severe Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Outlook Sunday

south…but I think the structure will be enough in tact to allow for some. If you look at the Severe Prediction Center (SPC) outlook, they ride the fence. They give us a 5% probability yet, the discussion sounds a bit more bullish. I won’t be surprised if they make us a slight risk by Sunday. Anyway, its a tough call and needs to be watched closely. The window of opportunity would probably be from around 10 am to 2 pm and thats it as the storm races northeast. Often, in an inland tropical system, you can have low topped cells that do not look particularly menacing. Say, 20K feet. No lightning. And boom…a quick little tornado. Several years ago that happened here. It was Opal or Lilly methinks. The storm center was between Cleveland and Cincinnati. We were well away from any rain…like 300 miles…except for a tiny little cell moving along I-64 from the west. The captain from the Belle of Louisille called in to the NWS and asked if there was a tornado anywhere and the NWS said no…the captain replied “well, I’m looking at one on the river right now.” A warning was issued and the tornado caused some decent damage to several homes. The rain was very very intense. Post analysis was very very difficult to find the tornado on radar…and that was when we knew what we were looking for. Now, that was a very well defined storm still. This one will be deteriorating. But, I still think it may have enough structural intengrity to pose enough of a problem to beware. The Captain of the Belle of Louisville may not be on duty as a weather watcher.

Rain Total Forecast Sun/Mon

Rain Total Forecast Sun/Mon

The weather looks great after that. We get the best chance for general rain after the passage of Ike and the front moves through. If you look at the QPF for Saturday night throug Monday night, you will see that the bulk of the heavy rain should stay to our northwest. Again, the models all say that and I would agree that our best chance for the general rain will be late in the day. But, I still can’t see that Ike will be so fouled up by then that we do not have a risk for passing storms midday Sunday as the remnant moves by. Most people will have less than a half inch of rain, but its possible that those who get an early passing storm may get more than that. It will be cool and cloudy on Monday with lots of sunshine and great conditions for th rest of the week and the Ryder Cup at Valhalla. Friday, Saturday and Sunday should have lows in the low 60’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

VALID 141200Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS …

…OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES/HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND…
HURRICANE IKE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A CNTRL U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TONIGHT LIKELY BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
IKE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS. AT LEAST A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM SRN IL AND WRN KY SUNDAY
MORNING NEWD INTO OH AND WRN PA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS PA…NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND…LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS IKE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF IKE…MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS PA AND NY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS CONVECTION INITIATES
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVES ENEWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME
STEEP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 09/13/2008

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