Hurricane Ike Still A Bully


Hurricane Ike Satellite IR image 0145Z 0912

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR image 0145Z 0912

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0145Z 0912

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0145Z 0912

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Just navigate from the Ohio Valley default region and go anywhere you like down to street level. You can add clouds and lightning. The storm will continue to show itself more fully as it gets closer to radar installations along the coast.

So far, Hurricane Ike is giving mixed reviews as to its intensions. It’s a bully but

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0911 11PM

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0911 11PM

not yet a champion. The official track has shifted a bit more, it seems to me, up the coast. What had been Freeport became San Luis Pass and now looks to be the west end of Galveston Island. The Spaghetti models seem to be converged in the same area but is also shifted. There are some models that go for a landfall east of Galveston. I stand by what I have said before and that is it is plausible for this storm to be make landfall east of Galveston Bay. It’s the turn that counts and the NHC has now come around to

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0912 00Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0912 00Z

calling for a turn Northwest from West-Northwest before landfall. The 18Z GFS is a shade south of the forecast track and the 12Z ECMWF is just east.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0912 00Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0912 00Z

There’s really nothing more to report. It’s a wait and see. I do still see some dry air in the water vapor imagery. Not much, but some. The spaghetti models are coming in line for something between 80 and 95 kts. The pressure on the last Hurricane hunter flight I saw was 954 mb. The flight level wind on that run was maxed out at 101 kts which is the highest I’ve seen in quite some time, certainly the highest of the day. Using a typical conversion method, one would consider that a 90 kt surface wind.

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field and Warnings

Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Field and Warnings

I still say that a landfall east of Galveston by is plausible. That would be great news…not for people in Beaumont or High Island or even Cameron, but for Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. Now it would not be a picnic in areas west of landfall, just the threat of catastrophic conditions will be reduced. This is a weird storm in that a forecast of a storm of is not a huge significance aside from the specifics mentioned because the maximum winds are not that high but extend 85 miles from the center. Winds of 75 mph or better extend 115 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds are 265miles from the center. Its not concentrated but it has a whole mess of energy over a very large area. This also will make the threat of tough tide rises over a large area. Earlier today hwy 98 in Ft. Walton was taken over by the Gulf and its no where close to the track. Seas offshore I’ve seen at about 35 feet and just a few miles offshore at South Timbalier 52 at 6pm they were 18 feet. I suspect some waves in the shallower Texas coastal area may be even higher than the 35 feet in the open Gulf.

Ike seems to trying to reorganize but may run out of time. The NHC is not as aggressive in its wording regarding the potential for Cat 3 status but its still possible as I suspect it will be trying to get more concentrated toward landfall.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH…SIZE…AND STRUCTURE THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL…BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE. INSTEAD…DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE…NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. SFMR RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS…PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING…AND NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD…SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST. IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE COASTLINE…BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE…HOWEVER…IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION…AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE THE LAST CYCLE…AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK…WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE…AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.3N 90.4W 85 KT

12HR VT12/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 90 KT

24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.5N 94.1W 95 KT

36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.5W 65 KT…INLAND

48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 95.7W 35 KT…INLAND

72HR VT 15/0000Z 39.0N 88.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER KNABB

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