for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE
If the forecast holds, then Ike will be practicing its “howdy boy” by the end of the
week…though in Texas we really don’t say howdy that much…I’ve been known to give a “boy howdy” at times. Anyway, the general consensus has not changed much from the previous set of runs. That consensus points toward Corpus Christi. The NHC seems to have nudged the track a shade farther north of Corpus..a bit closer to Victoria/Palacious and after it goes inland they have it tracking just a shade east of San Antonio instead of right over the Alamo City. Other than that, not a whole lot different. The 18Z GFS and the 18Z NOGAPS both want to take the storm just south of Corpus Christi into the King Ranch and a b
unch of cows. The Canadian model had its 12Z run still insisting on Houston but now coming around to Corpus Christi. If you look on the spaghetti model, you will see some outliers but note that those are the ones that generally didn’t initiate properly. The eye is very apparent on the satellite. The pressure hasn’t changed much but is still a healthy 967 mb. That will support higher than the current 80 mph max winds and the storms around the core look to be getting healthy quickly. Still think that this guy will ramp up nicely.
I think I’ve decided I’m not going to get into the long term landfall game again.
We’ve been literally running all over the map with this guy and it was over a week
away. It’s still 5 days away and I have my doubts about the track. I know that there are only a few models going with a more northern track. But, you know what, I said it was very odd to have a ridge so strong as to build up big and fat and be able to drive a storm west southwest toward Brownsville this time of year. Now, the story has changed. And I still think with a big trof coming down that the ridge is so certain to be able to run it almost due west is a bit questionable. The storm is forecast to turn sharply after landfall in response to the trof. Not saying this will not be it…the boys at the NHC nailed Gustav many days out…the models are in good agreement and the story they tell is plausible. But, there are variables and many days to go and a lot of atmosphere out there. If the forecast gets messed up, I suspect that it will rest in the storm moving slower than forecast….but that’s a guess. So, I’ll stop guessing now.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT. IKE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY…AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES…ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED…NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT REACHES THE WESTERN GULF…BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS…PRESUMABLY BECAUSE OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR TEXAS. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS. THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR 300/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…IKE SHOULD MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. AGAIN…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT…INLAND
$$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG