Perhaps Hurricane Ike is a Cattle Man…or Maybe A Magic Man


Cowboy Ike?

Cowboy Ike?

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 0909 1615Z

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visible Image 0909 1615Z

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Rainbow 0909 12Z

Hurricane Ike Satellite IR Rainbow 0909 12Z

for a more recent update on hurricane ike CLICK HERE

We seem to have some continuity for once. The cows of the King Ranch are chewing their cud a little faster. For the first time in several days, the models have had some consistency from run to run. Well, the majority anyway, The ECMWF has been consistent with a South Texas landfall for a few days now and the others have come around. The National Hurricance Center seems to have stopped its trending South (remember yesterday morning the spaghetti consensus was the Houston area. and for the time being has settled on a King Ranch scenario. BUT Ike may have another trick up its sleeve…some interesting items are coming

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0909 11AM

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0909 11AM

about. Yesterday, I saw one model run of some different model (I don’t recall which one) that had the storm approach South Texas and suddenly take an abrupt turn north. That track took it to Houston…not directly as the official forecast had at the time, but by a circuitous route. What is happening now is that there are several models including the ECMWF and the all-over-the-place GFS take the storm into South Texas and then make an abrupt turn to the north toward Austin. What is going on is that the big front that is scheduled to bring lows in the 40’s and perhaps even highs that don’t get into the 70’s in Louisville is still the preferred solution for early next week. These models advertising the abrupt turn are calling for the trof to dig all the way into Texas. Now…here’s a plausible scenario. Ike

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0909 12Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0909 12Z

traverses the Gulf as suggested…but does so more slowly. The trof digs down as some models suggest. The turn now being called for just after landfall happens just offshore of Texas prior to landfall as the trof and Ike meet farther out in the Gulf because of Ike’s slowed pace. The storm turns and threatens the upper Texas coast or even Louisiana or maybe even other parts of the north Gulf Coast. Earlier, several models had abrupt turns northeast. Some had it from the upper Texas coast to SW Louisiana, others kept insisting on the storm going to the mouth of the Mississippi river before turning Northeast or even East. So, we’ve got a trof coming down. If, and its a big IF, the trof does dig down then the abrupt turn

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 12Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 12Z

somewhere comes back into play. I see some of the models on the spaghetti presentation are suggesting this scenario.  At this point I’m in no way going out on that limb, in fact I’m not going on any limb. I’m not even in any tree at this point.  I saw some expert last night say definitively it was going to Houston directly. I suspect he will be singing a different tune today. But all I am saying is that the song being sung by the models now may not be the final tune. So far, they have introduced numerous different verses and I suspect that the song is still being written as we speak.  My guess is that the NHC has stopped their trend south for the time being to wait and see what the piano-player has in mind next.

 

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL…AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS…BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT.  SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY…BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT…RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF…AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN…WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR…AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING…AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF…WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE…WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2…AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1500Z 22.6N  83.0W    70 KT
12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.2W    70 KT
24HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W    85 KT
36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.7N  87.4W    95 KT
48HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.2W   100 KT
72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  93.5W   100 KT
96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.5N  97.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  99.5W    40 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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