Hurricane Ike Forecast Nudged North


Hurricane Ike Satellite Visibile Image 0909 2115

Hurricane Ike Satellite Visibile Image 0909 2115

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0909 18Z

Hurricane Ike Satellite Water Vapor Image 0909 18Z

for a more recent update on hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

I’ve got other thing to do so this will be short. I’m going sculling with Snow White. The forecast track graphic is from the Naval Research Lab because I think it shows better specific stuff like towns and lat/lon lines. Hurricane Ike has emerged from Cuba in pretty good shape. It has a great looking

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track NRL Graphic 0909 5pm

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track NRL Graphic 0909 5pm

outflow and the water vapor imagery is devoid of any dry air within the storm that would mess it up. The winds are said to be at minimal intensity as it moved offshore but the central pressure is a very healthy 968 mb. That will support much higher winds. I suspect that this guy is going to ramp back up fairly quickly. As for the track, those models have become more clustered again, like they were yesterday, but that cluster has moved north. The National Hurricane Center forecast has shifted north, pretty much on the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 18Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0909 18Z

consensus track, just north of Corpus Christi. If you read my last post you will not be surprised to find out that I am not surprised by the official shift. There are some refineries in that area and around Port Lavaca but nothing like the 23% of the nations refining capacity along the Houston Ship Channel. The track is still not Gospel. What the forecast track reflects is the breaking down of the ridge as a trof moves in. It gets caught up in the trof and zips north to San Antonio and then west of Dallas. It should bring rain to the plains and Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday but will be moving very rapidly so overly excessive rain is not a huge likelihood.

So, here’s the bottom line. The Spaghetti model consensus has gone from Houston to Brownsville to south of Corpus Christi to North of Corpus Christi in 36 hours. The track is not Gospel. Other scenarios are possible. Stay tuned….should be interesting.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA…ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE…AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW…968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME…THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO…INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES…REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF…WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF…SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9…AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

One Response

  1. found some interesting video footage of the storm surge in Baracoa Cuba, caused by Ike…….Impressive stuff. I figured I would share it with my favorite meteorologist.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/09/080909-waves-video-ap.html

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: