Turks, Caicos, Cuba Do Not Like Ike


Hurricane Ike Enhance IR Satellite 0907 0315Z

Hurricane Ike Enhance IR Satellite 0907 0315Z

Hurricane Ike IR Satellite 0907 0315Z

Hurricane Ike IR Satellite 0907 0315Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE 

Hanna is zipping right along. By 11pm Saturday it had increased it forward speed to 30 mph.  If you want to check out the Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, you better click here fast…it will be gone by Sunday afternoon.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0906 11pm

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0906 11pm

I told you days ago that I liked Ike.  Josephine looks to be even more useless than even I anticipated and Hanna is doing pretty much what I figured, though at one

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0907 00Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0907 00Z

point early on I thought that it might be mainly a threat to mariners.  In large measure, that was  how it turned out in spite of coming ashore.  In any event, Hurricane Ike has been a nice storm for some time and it appears determined to try to keep it going.  It has many obstacles though.  First, it has the mountains of Cuba.  It seems likely it will strike NE Cuba as a strong Cat 4 hurricane.  Then it moves across Cuba and the mountains which should rip it up pretty good.  But, the National Hurricane Center has ever so slightly shifted their track from running down the center of Cuba to running along the south coast of the Communist Island.  This is not significant in terms of the intensity forecast of the storm except that it is a

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0907 00Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0907 00Z

shift…previously they had it running through the Florida Strait.  There are several models that want to have the storm emerge in the Northeast Carribean before

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0906 11pm

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0906 11pm

running it either west of Cuba or just over the western tip.  Should that occur, and its entirely possible, then the storm would have the potential to not decrease in strength or structure as it would only be over land for a limited duration.  Either way, this guy is going into the Gulf.  A number of models target New Orleans.  However, there are a larger number than previously that suggest it will continue in a more westward motion which might threaten Texas.  In order for it to get all the way to Tejas, it would have to slip under a trof that is scheduled to dig down into the Southern states late in the week.  Even if it does go west, there is the possibility that the storm hooks back around and nails Louisiana from the Southwest.  At least one model suggests that very thing.  There are just so many variables.

Not just with the track but the intensity, which is always a challenge for forecasters. Some of the models want to ramp this guy up to near Cat 5 status again, which would be very unusual for a storm that has been affected structurally.  However, its possible, but not part of the official forecast yet.  The NHC kicks it back to 115 mph after its Cuban interaction.  Nevertheless, when trying to figure out an intensity forecast for this guy one has to consider its visit to Cuba and how long its over land and how much the structure is messed up.  Then, how does it recover. Then there is the upper air environment over the Gulf for the next week. And of course, there is water temperatures, which are plenty warm enough but variations in intensity may occur as it goes over varying areas of  water temperature differentials.  SE Louisiana, one way or another, is a very real possibility. But, its not the only possibility by any stretch so anywhere along the Gulf Coast can conceivably be a potential landfall.  I can create scenarios for just anywhere from Brownsville to Tampa, though I suspect that the window will be a still rather large area from say Galveston to Tallahassee.  There’s at least the balance of the week to go and something usually comes up one way or another.  Here’s the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Ike 11pm Discussion.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
A FEW HOURS AGO.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
THEN…SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER…IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.  ONCE IKE
MOVES OUT OF CUBA…AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE AGAIN…AND GLOBAL MODELS…PRIMARILY THE GFS…MAKE IKE
A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD…SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN…IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA…TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED…THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST…BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER…I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS…THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES…THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.  UNANIMOUSLY…TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0300Z 21.2N  70.9W   115 KT
12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  73.0W   120 KT
24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.5W   125 KT
36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  78.0W    95 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  80.0W    80 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W    85 KT…OVER WATER
96HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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