Just Ike


for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

Ike Enhanced IR Satellite 0907 18Z

Hurricane Ike Enhanced IR Satellite 0907 18Z

Snow White and I went to church today so I’m a little behind. I”ve also got work to do so I’m adding nothing except to say that the National Hurricane Center is going with the consensus track which takes Ike up the gut of Cuba and then eventually a couple hundred miles or so south of Houma, LA.  It doesn’t appear that the models like my great idea of it moving across Cuba and running just off the South Coast of the Communist Island.  Ike looks very impressive on the satellite and the Enhanced IR satellite looks cool.  A couple of the models want to ramp it back up to near or above Cat 5 status by then but the consensus is to Cat 3.  The latter is more of the norm as once a storm gets ripped up, its very unusual for the storm to regain its former glory.  But, its not impossible.  I’ll add more of my two cents later.   Some of the bands are showing up on this radar loop. If you want to try and catch part of Ike, Click Here and navigate the map down to Ike’s location.  I believe we’re getting partial returns out of the Key West Radar and the Puerto Rico Radar.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 2pm 0907

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 2pm 0907

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS.  THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
KT.  A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER… EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES…INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY…ARE VERY DIFFICULT

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0907 12Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0907 12Z

TO ANTICIPATE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS…EITHER UP OR DOWN…IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT.  ONCE INLAND…WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND.  THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.  HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  SINCE THE WATERS OVER
THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH…
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0907 12Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0907 12Z

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13.  IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN 2-3 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE’S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV…AND THIS DATA…ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES…ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/1500Z 21.0N  73.4W   115 KT
12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.2W   120 KT
24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  79.9W    70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.8W    65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  85.0W    70 KT
96HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  87.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

One Response

  1. Watching the satellite loop for the last two hours, at 4PM Sunday September 7th there has been a distinct wobble to the northwest by the center of circulation that is now moving parallel to the Cuban coast. Although wobbles are normal, Ike has been moving west along 21 latitude for the last six hours and now has lifted back to 21.1 where it was at 5AM and if Ike stays on this path for even another six hours then the storm may clear Cuba completely.

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