Hurricane Ike and the Turtle


for a more recent update on hurricane ike, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: The weekend looks good. Clouds will lurk the first part of Saturday but never fear, the sun will be here. Saturday afternoon, partly cloudy with highs in the upper 70’s and low 80’s. Sunday, plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid 80’s. Expected big cool-down doesn’t get here until next weekend.

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0905 11pm

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0905 11pm

Tropical Storm Hanna is behaving itself and should remain as a tropical storm as it moves inland near Myrtle Beach, head to Dover Delaware and then to Boston. Its will move very fast and be leaving the coast of Maine by Sunday evening. For a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Navigate to street level, add clouds and lightning. Hit “animate” to loop the image. It’s not pixelie so knock yourself out. Inland flooding should be limited due to its rapid speed. I would think that one of the biggest threats would be tornadoes and it will be interesting to see what the seas do off of New England.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0906 11pm

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0906 11pm

Hurricane Ike: I went to a movie premiere tonight on which Snow White did the make-up work. On the one hand, I was surprised when I looked at the models but then again, I wasn’t. See, I told you on Wednesday that we had been expecting a big front here in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Its not too unusual when you get into the seasonal change that the models have the general story right but has the timing wrong. In this case, we still have decidedly cooler air coming down the pike, but it won’t be until next weekend. Cold air wants to dive into the US but other features come along that holds it up until it’s allowed to come down. That usually just makes for an adjustment of the long term forecast. In this case, it throws the hurricane forecast into a real stir. Several days ago, the story was for Ike to run across Cuba or south of Florida and

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0906 00Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0906 00Z

into the Gulf. Then the hurricane models picked up on the front coming through here. If we get a front here that drops our overnight lows into the 40’s, then one would accept the idea that it will go pretty deep and generally quickly, so it made some sense for a number of the models to turn the storm as it was approaching, or before, it got to Florida. Well, now that the models have been keeping the cold air bottled up and, therefore, no trofs digging south, the advertised notion is that the ridge hangs tough or even builds west. So, instead of turning the storm, a the majority of the models are back to taking Hurricane Ike south of the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0906 00Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0906 00Z

After that…it gets murky. For instance. The 18Z GFS took the storm around the

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0905 11pm

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0905 11pm

Florida peninsula and wrapped it back to landfall between Tampa and Tallahassee. Now, the 00Z GFS takes it across Cuba and heads it west across the Gulf of Mexico and has it hang around in the Central Gulf before taking it toward the central Louisiana coast in about 6 days. That is reasonably close what the 12Z ECMWF does, though its a more direct and slightly quicker route to south Louisiana. Both of these time frames reflect getting caught up by the trof that should be moving through Louisville on Friday night. If you buy the deep digging trof notion, then they both make sense. On the hurricane spaghetti model, you will note some variation of that theme, except that a number of the models have the turn around into the Gulf more in the eastern Gulf. Thats the bad news. The good news is that the longer a storm is alive, the more things that can happen to it to weaken it. In this case, Cuba could pose a problem for Ike. Typically, if a big bopper gets ripped up, it rarely returns to its former intensity. Having said all of that, the National Hurricane Center’s track has a minimal influence from Cuba and advertises a very strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Day 5. Interests from South Florida to the Gulf states should keep up with this next week. Even South Texas…I mean..what if the hurricane is so far south it sneaks under the trof?

On This Date In History: The United States staged the first submarine attack in history. Well, it was really still the American colonies and it wasn’t a true submarine. It was around midnight in 1776 on September 6 that the British Fleet lay in anchor near Manhattan poised to pounce on General Washington’s beleagured army. Quietly, Sgt. Ezra Lee peddled, with both hands and feet, briskly to turn the propeller of an egg shaped, wooden capsule that was able to float just under the water line using water ballast tanks. The contraption was the brainchild of David Buschnell, who just 4 years before spent his inheritance on an undergraduate degree at Yale. He was, what was then considered, the ripe old age of 30. Buschnell was able to demonstrate that gun powder could be ignited underwater if it were in a close container. So, Lee was to sneak up on the Flag Ship of the British Navy and use a device to screw in a container of gunpowder, ignite it and peddle away as fast as he could. Trouble was, Lee was unable to successfully screw in the charge.

While Buschnell had successfully tested the submarine in the Connecticut River, the currents of the merging East River and Hudson River create a rather turbulent situation when one considers there is the ocean tide tossed in for good measure. It is suspected that Lee was very inexperienced at operating the Turtle and was unable to maintain a stable platform while submerged under the ship. He therefore failed in is two attempts to bore through the hull. He abandoned the mission and released the 130 pound charge after a couple of British rowboats spotted him. While this attempt failed, the whole exercise got the military minds whizzing. It is interesting to note that the Submarine was first conceived as a military weapon, though Jules Verne captured even more imaginative uses with his 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea in the 19th Century.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT…OTHERWISE THE INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0…AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT…OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE ESTIMATES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC…WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE’S STRENGTH. IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT. IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS…IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION…AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD. IN FACT…MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED…THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED. THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE IKE…STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE…LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND 36 HOURS…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA…IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND. HOWEVER…IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA…AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 22.6N 65.6W 100 KT

12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W 100 KT

24HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W 100 KT

36HR VT 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W 105 KT

48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W 115 KT

72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W 110 KT

96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W 110 KT

120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 115 KT

$$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

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