Hurricane Ike, Tropical Storm Hanna-Steady As She Goes


Hurricane Ike 0905 2115Z

for a more recent update on hurricane Ike, click here

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0905 5pm

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0905 5pm

There’s really nothing new to report regarding Hurricane Ike or Tropical Storm Hanna. You can find a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop by a simple CLICK HERE. It’s close enough to radar installations to get a good look. Just navigate from the default area of the Ohio Valley to the coast. You can get lightning, clouds and radar all the way to street level so if you have friends in, say Wilmington, you can see what’s happening at their house.

Otherwise, I’m letting the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion stand alone this time. Dr. Jack Beven always does a great job. For my take, you can scroll back or Click Here for the previous post.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0905 18Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0905 18Z

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED…ALONG WITH SFMR WINDS OF 94 KT…PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95 KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 100 KT…SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE TOMORROW…AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING…PERHAPS RAPID…BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LGEM MODEL EARLY ON…AND IS

Hurricane Ike spaghetti model Intensity Graph 0905 18Z

Hurricane Ike spaghetti model Intensity Graph 0905 18Z

A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IKE’S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA…WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY…THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS…ARE THE ONES WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL…SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL…MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND I’M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST…THE FORECAST COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS…AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT

12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT

24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT

36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT

48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT

72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT

96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT

120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0905 18Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0905 18Z

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT HANNA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STEPPED

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0905 5pm

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0905 5pm

FREQUENCY MICROWAVE REPORTED TWO AREAS OF WIND OF ABOUT 65 KT. HOWEVER…DROPSONDE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATES WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 75 KT ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB…UP A LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON ALL THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE METEOROLOGICALLY BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 360/17…WITH A RE-ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTING THIS MOTION BEGAN JUST AFTER THE 11Z AIRCRAFT FIX. HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-36 HR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES FOR HANNA…AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER…THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.8N 78.7W 60 KT

12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.2N 78.5W 60 KT

24HR VT 06/1800Z 36.7N 76.8W 50 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 07/0600Z 40.7N 72.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 07/1800Z 44.5N 65.6W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 08/1800Z 50.0N 47.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 09/1800Z 51.0N 30.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 10/1800Z 52.5N 14.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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