Tropical Storm Ike Shaping Up Like Tina; Tropical Storm Hanna Fading


for a more recent update on ike and hanna, Click here

I like Ike….just look at it above…shaping up like Tina!!

For a Gustav Radar Loop or a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0903

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0903

I’m not going to write too much this time.  Hanna is getting the shoot kicked out

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0903 12Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0903 12Z

of it by shear.  Its starting to drift north and the spaghetti models are getting together in suggesting that it may even stay off shore.  The NHC has shifted its forecast track east but not completely toward the consensus….yet.  The storm is becoming less interesting and less of a threat.  It’s taken so much time in the islands that an upper low has now wandered in to mess it up and the delay also make it so the trof picks it up before it gets to the coast since it stayed on schedule.

Tropical Storm Ike NHC forecast Track 11AM 0903

Tropical Storm Ike NHC forecast Track 11AM 0903

I still like Ike.  Ike is rounding into shape more like Tina Turner than Ike Turner as I suspect it will at some time become a beautifully formed storm.  Once this upper

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0903 12Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0903 12Z

 low that is menacing Hanna moves through, ridging will build in and the course of Ike would shift west, if not slightly south of west.  The official forecast takes it into the Florida Straits.  Still the same question that I had last time which regards the depth of the front coming through here on Tuesday. It’s pretty strong and so if it digs far enough South, then it would pick up Ike and turn it toward the coast.  If Ike keeps up a good pace, then it should get south of the

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 12Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 12Z

Florida Peninsula before it can get picked up and then turn up toward say the Panhandle.  The the front beats it to the coast, then it would turn up into the peninsula.  BUT…if the trof doesnt dig deep enough leaving Ike farther south, then it would slip underneath and head into the Gulf, threatening the northern Gulf if not the western Gulf.    Some support for this notion lies in the ridge flattening out along the Dixie states with the trof not getting far south and Ike getting sent on its merry way…essentially, the ridge stands between the front and the hurricane.  Lots of time…lots of things can happen. I just outlined three of them.  But I’m tellin’ you…I still like Ike.  I suspect that it will be a hurricane soon and has big bopper potential. Some time I’ll tell you about my sitting by Ike Turner on a flight from Louisville to Houston.

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY…AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO
FROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING…WE MIGHT SEE AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0…BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER…SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW.  IN
ANY CASE…IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE
ONE LATER TODAY.  THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET
WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR
29 CELSIUS…WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…HOWEVER…IKE
MIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST
ANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT…BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST
STRENGTHENING…UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST…ESCAPES THE
SHEAR…AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE
WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS…AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE
MODELS FORECAST IKE TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THAT
RIDGE…BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL RUN INTO A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT FEATURE…BUT THEY
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT LATITUDE OR THE SPEED OF THAT WESTWARD
MOTION.  THE CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK…BUT
OTHERWISE THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE…EXCEPT FOR
A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.8N  51.2W    60 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.7N  53.7W    65 KT
24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.8W    70 KT
36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  59.4W    70 KT
48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  62.0W    70 KT
72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.5N  67.0W    80 KT
96HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  71.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N  75.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 12Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 12Z

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITH HANNA TODAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.  THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS COMING OUT OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN CENTER…AND THE
SYSTEM’S CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CORE.  THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT ENDED AROUND 12Z REPORTED SOME SFMR
WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT ABOUT 70 NM FROM THE CENTER…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED…THE INTIAL MOTION IS HARD
TO GAUGE.  MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/5…AND THIS COULD BE THE START
OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE UPPER U.S. EAST COAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION WITH A
RECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS…AND GIVEN THE POOR CORE STRUCTURE OF HANNA I AM INCLINED
TO THINK THAT SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER STEERING MAY BE
A LITTLE OVERDONE…AT LEAST INITIALLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN TERMS OF SPEED…WITH
THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL SHOWING A MORE VERTICAL SYSTEM MOVING MORE
RAPIDLY.  THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW CYCLES…AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…TO BE REPLACED WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PERMIT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION…BUT
HANNA WILL NEED TO RECREATE AN INNER CORE IN ORDER TO INTENSIFY
SUBSTANTIALLY.  THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS HANNA TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE
THIS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.6N  71.8W    50 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N  72.0W    50 KT
24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.4N  73.3W    55 KT
36HR VT     05/0000Z 25.2N  75.2W    60 KT
48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.3N  77.1W    65 KT
72HR VT     06/1200Z 33.0N  79.0W    70 KT
96HR VT     07/1200Z 42.0N  71.0W    35 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1200Z 47.0N  60.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

2 Responses

  1. well, you know your going to have to tell us now, you can’t just leave us hanging like that…..what did Ike have to say? inquiring minds want to know!🙂

  2. I will tell you this….he traveled like a commoner..thats why he was in my section.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: