Hurricane Ike Is Born; Tropical Storm Hanna On Bahamian Holiday


Hurricane Ike 2030 0903

Say Hello to Hurricane Ike above

for a more recent update on Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Gustav Radar Loop and a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar loop, click here and navigate to your desired location.

Hurricane Ike NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0903

Hurricane Ike NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0903

I’ve been telling you that I like Ike and so I’m going to start off with Ike, even though Hanna is closer to the United States.  Tropical Storm Ike became Hurricane

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti model Intensity Graph 0903 18Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti model Intensity Graph 0903 18Z

 Ike as expected at 5 pm on Wednesday.  Winds are projected at 80 mph and the storm is moving northwest but a ridge it should encounter a building ridge that is pretty formidable as it is forecast to be strong enough to shove it with a soutwesterly component for several days.  Now, the outperiods are the question marks as the storm swings into the Bahamas, the spaghetti model indicates that a number of models want to start to swing the storm northwest toward the Florida peninsula.  That is in response to a strong trof moving through the Ohio

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0903 18Z

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0903 18Z

Valley which will cool things off in Louisville appreciably.  That trof is running a little ahead of schedule and that is part of the key.  If the trof comes faster and deeper, it will pick up the storm just off the SE Florida coast, posing a threat to Florida and the East Coast.  If the trof does not dig as deep as progged, the storm moves faster or the trof moves slower, then that would provide the opportunity for Ike to head to the Gulf, which is what earlier models suggested.  But the ECMWF was one of the first models to pick up on this earlier turn and now many of the others have followed suit.  As I’ve said before, its a long way out and there is lots of time but Ike looks to be in a good spot to get going pretty good.  Questions arise when it gets into the Bahamas.  Hanna has been churning up the water in that area. And, our long wave pattern is looking kinda fall-like and that may increase the chances of a more hostile environment down the line.  Lots of time and space, lots of variables.

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0903

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0903

Tropical Storm Hanna has gotten beaten up pretty good. Its delay has allowed for

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 18Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 18Z

the trof that was to pick up the storm and turn it into the SE will be farther along.  So, as the storm finally gets going with a northwestward trajectory, it will get picked up well before it approaches the Florida coast and turn sooner, making the landfall more of a glancing blow to the eastern side of North Carolina.  Places like Wilmington and Cape Hatteras will get some action from a minimal hurricane (maybe) but much of the SE will be spared.  I noted some odd looking data for a tropical cyclone on some of the

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0903 18Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0903 18Z

models yesterday and now the NHC has it losing tropical characteristics pretty quickly and shoot it up the east coast like squeezing a wet watermelon seed.  Hanna does not look particularly menacing and out ahead of it, perhaps and onshore flow will bring much needed rain to Western North Carolina and Eastern Tennesee.

Josephine is way out there still and as we get deeper into September, it may prove difficult for it to be of anything more than a maritime concern.  Here is the track nonetheless.  The following is the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Hurricane Ike then the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Tropical Storm Hanna.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

AS ANTICIPATED…IKE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALL
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES SAY IT HAS BECOME A HURRICANE.  SINCE THE
1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT…AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN
LATE-DAY VISIBLE IMAGERY…SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT.  THE
CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR…IN BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE BASIN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ARE
STARTING TO JUST SLIGHTLY RESTRICT IKE’S OUTFLOW.  GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST…BUT PROBABLY NOT
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HALT IKE’S INTENSIFICATION TREND IN THE SHORT
TERM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY
PEAK AT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE SHEAR…FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL THE SHEAR ABATES AFTER IKE GETS FARTHER
WEST.  BY THAT TIME…IN ABOUT 72 HOURS…OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC
FACTORS BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION…AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF…FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAYS
4 AND 5…WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LONG-RANGE
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN…HOWEVER…AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IKE WILL
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE FOUR AND FIVE DAYS FROM NOW.  IF IKE IS WEAKER
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5…THEN THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM WILL TURN OUT TO BE
MORE ACCURATE.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/16.  AS
THE LARGE AND DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST…MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…WHICH WILL PUSH IKE GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  UNDULATIONS IN THE TRACK ARE
LIKELY THOUGH.  IKE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORMS…AFTER WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THAT RIDGE.  THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES
IS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT
RIDGE…WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND
AREAS.  THE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE AN UNANIMOUS ANSWER…WHICH IS
NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE
BEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5…BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE…OR IF
ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 21.6N  52.7W    70 KT
12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.6N  55.1W    75 KT
24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N  57.9W    85 KT
36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N  60.4W    80 KT
48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.8N  63.1W    80 KT
72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.5N  68.0W    90 KT
96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z REVEALED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
HANNA WAS BECOMING ELONGATED IN RESPONSE TO THE ASYMMETRIC
DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION.  IN SPITE OF THIS…DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS BECOMING A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 989 MB.  THE
AIRCRAFT DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT
50 KT.

A MORE DEFINITIVE NORTHWARD MOTION HAS COMMENCED…WITH THE INITIAL
ESTIMATE BEING 360/10.   THE UPPER LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT…AND AS IT DOES SO MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND IT.  HANNA SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION
FAIRLY WELL…AND I’VE HAD TO SPEED UP MY PREVIOUS FORECAST A
LITTLE BIT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO BE
FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST…AND IF HANNA DEVELOPS FASTER
THAN SHOWN BELOW ADDITIONAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE.
IT’S WORTH NOTING THAT CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS
WITH A STRAIGHT LINE GIVES A MISLEADING UNDERESTIMATE OF THE
THREAT TO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS.  ONLY A GRADUAL
RIGHT TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAHAMAS AND HANNA SEPARATE…THE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND LESSEN.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING…ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOWS VERY
MUCH.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM BRING THE SYSTEM ONLY TO 60 KT…AND THE
HWRF NOT QUITE THAT HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS HANNA TO 70 KT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 21.9N  71.9W    50 KT
12HR VT     04/0600Z 23.2N  72.7W    55 KT
24HR VT     04/1800Z 25.2N  74.5W    60 KT
36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.4N  76.6W    65 KT
48HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  78.5W    70 KT
72HR VT     06/1800Z 36.8N  76.9W    50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     07/1800Z 44.5N  67.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1800Z 48.0N  55.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

2 Responses

  1. […] Update: Symonsez has outstanding hurricane coverage. […]

  2. Thanx for the shout out—whoever you are!

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