Tropical Storm Hanna, Josephine and Ike: Better Friends Than Bill and Warren


For a radar loop of the Tropical Depression Gustav or a Tropical Storm Hanna radar loop, CLICK HERE and navigate to your desired location, all the way to street level. Click “animate” to loop.

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM

Late Tuesday morning three tropical storms are roaming the Atlantic.  Tropical

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0902

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0902

Storm Hanna has stayed too long at the fair.  The idea was supposed to be that Hanna would start moving Northwest and then swing up into the SE coast. But, Hanna stayed over the same area for too long over the same area, producing some upwelling of colder water.  More importantly, there is a shear from the north that is ripping it up and it has been downgraded to Tropical Storm status.  The Intensity Probability Table indicates not only a 50-50 chance  of it being a hurricane, the odds also suggest that it will only regain

Tropical Storm Hanna Intensity Probability Table 0902 11AM

Tropical Storm Hanna Intensity Probability Table 0902 11AM

itself back to cat 1 status if it does so.  The angle of attack will make a for a very difficult landfall prediction.  The track was shifted just slightly back to the west and that resulted in a shift of the landfall forecast back to  just north of Savannah into South Carolina.  The spaghetti model consensus though is south of Savannah.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

I still am of the early opinion….at this point its more of a guess or “feeling” that

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

Tropical Storm Ike will be a trouble maker.  It is forecast to increase in strength and the track will be around a ridge that is forecast to drive it west.  Tropical Storm Ike is a long way off and therefore there are many things that can happen atmospherically.  Even farther out is Tropical Storm Josephine.  It virtually has the entire Atlantic Ocean to travel over.  Regarding Ike and Josephine, while the time factor does open the door for a changing environment and steering pattern, climatologically, this time of year the region in which they formed has been a favored area for some of the most significant landfalling US tropical cyclones.  So these guys should not be blown off.  The National Hurricane Center Discussion for Tropical Storm Hanna and the Tropical Storm Ike Discussion can be found at the bottom.

Louisville Weather:  The troubles of Hanna are actually a potential benefit to our area as well. Because Hanna is forecast to be less formidable, then the chances of our getting subsidence (sinking air) or even has much advection of dry air from the northeast as a front approaches. Therefore, the prospects of our getting some rain from Gustav drawn up along the front is much better.  As of noon today, we are forecasting perhaps some isolated stuff on Wed and Thursday and more scattered activity on Friday.  Short-wave ridging on Thursday may hamper storms but the chance is there. We need the rain: My hydrandia needs it.  I’m tired of watering at midnight.

Victim Of Conspiracy?

Victim Of Conspiracy?

  On This Date in History: President Warren G. Harding died in San Francisco in 1923. Officially he died of a heart attack but speculation is that he may have been murdered. However, all subsequent investigations have determined that he was not poisoned, as conspiracy theorists suggest. Why would there be a conspiracy? Well, Harding had allowed his Secretary of the Interior to take over from the Navy Department the Teapot Dome oil reserve in Wyoming. The Secretary then allowed for two oilmen to develop the oil field there and another in California. Murmuring began as the Secretary suddenly upgraded his lifestyle. Turns out he had received $400,000 in “gifts” from the two oilmen. The Teapot Dome Scandal was the first huge Federal Government corruption scandal in the 20th century if not in all US history. Many more have followed. When told that his friends may be enriching themselves at the Federal Trough, Harding is said to have exclaimed, “My…friends…they’re the ones that keep me walking the floors nights!” Herbert Hoover urged Harding to publicly expose the scandal but Harding did not in fear of the public uproar. Harding avoided the whole mess and possible impeachment by conveniently dying before the Teapot Dome Scandal really bubbled to the surface.

Bill Sat In the Wrong Chair

Bill Sat In the Wrong Chair

In 1876, Wild Bill Hickok was shot and killed in Deadwood, South Dakota. It wasn’t in a gunfight though. Hickok was playing cards in Saloon Number 10 with his back to the door. A tinhorn gunman named Jack McCall came in an shot Wild Bill in the back of the head. Legend is that Hickok was holding a pair of black aces and black 8’s. That is now commonly known as the “dead man’s hand” though most of the time the suit is not noted and just aces and eights will suffice for the moniker. Two things have eluded me: One is how does someone named James Butler become “Wild Bill?” The other is why he had his back to the door. Hickok had a storied life as a gunfighter and his reputation made him a target for those wanting to make a name for themselves. So, he typically sat with his back to the wall. I guess on August 2, 1876 he thought he was among friends.

Seems Wild Bill and Warren G. needed to be more careful about their friends.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

HANNA HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND A SHRINKING CDO FEATURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 60 KT…BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION…THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE HANNA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION
AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE
SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM…AND SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ABOUT 24
HOURS…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR WEAKENING AND THIS COULD ALLOW
HANNA TO RESTRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER…GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION…IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.  IN FACT…IF ONE CONSULTS THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE…IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS
NEARLY AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF HANNA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE AT DAY 3.

HANNA CONTINUES TO MEANDER BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF AN INITIAL
MOTION IS 250/05. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
HANNA SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HANNA SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 2 TO 3 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…HANNA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA… GEORGIA…OR SOUTH CAROLINA
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXPECTED ANGLE OF
APPROACH AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 21.0N  73.5W    60 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 21.4N  73.7W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.3N  74.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.6N  75.3W    65 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 25.1N  76.8W    70 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  80.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  80.0W    35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     07/1200Z 45.5N  70.0W    25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0847 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS EXPANDED A BIT…AND A FEW 50-55 KT BARBS WERE LOCATED WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF
IKE. MOST MODELS…EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN…ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TO
DAY 5. IN FACT…WITH A LATITUDINAL SPREAD OF ONLY 5 DEGREES AT DAY
5…WE COULDN’T HAVE ASKED FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
280/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM
WITH THE CYCLONE. SOME OF THE MODELS… PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND
HWRF…SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND AND BRING IKE VERY CLOSE TO OR
OVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER…BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING IKE TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE…AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT CALL FOR SUCH STRENGTHENING…I PREFER TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDS IKE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM…IT IS PROBABLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO UNTIL IT CAN DEVELOP JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
TO ISOLATE ITSELF. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF APPARENTLY IGNORE SUCH SHEAR AND FORECAST IKE TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
A POSSIBILITY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.9N  45.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N  47.3W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N  50.3W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  53.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  56.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W    80 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  68.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  74.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

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