Gustav Rains While Tropical Storm Hanna Dawdles and Tropical Storm Ike Churns Along


Gustav Weakened But Still Cost Billions

Gustav Weakened But Still Cost Billions

Hurricane Gustav Damage Estimates Lowered-LINK TO STORY

For a Gustav Radar Loop or a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE

for a more recent update on Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Ike CLICK HERE

0902 5 Day Forecast Rainfall (QPF) Thru Sun AM

0902 5 Day Forecast Rainfall (QPF) Thru Sun AM

Tropical Depression Gustav is lurking in NE Texas and will continue to lumber along and probably get ripped apart and stretch into the plains. The moisture will be try to get to the Ohio Valley but activity will be suppressed, in spite of a frontal zone in the area. So far, rain fall totals from radar estimates have been in the 5-10 inch range in Louisiana but rain should continue for the next couple of days. Because Gustav has been moving, the catastrophic rain amounts for this week may not come to fruition.

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 0902 5PM

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 0902 5PM

Tropical Storm Hanna is just hanging around in the islands. It’s even been drifing SE! It is expected to get caught up in a trof and begin a northwestward motion and

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 18Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 18Z

approach Florida. Then it would swing more NNW and the point of landfall will be rather difficult given the approach is at such a small angle relative to the coast. If you’ve been following along, the track has gone from Savannah to Wilimington to the middle of SC, back to Savannah and now back to north of Savannah. Changes of just a few miles of the track as it swings around can alter the landfall point by many miles. If you recall a similar situation with

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 18Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 18Z

Hurricane Charlie several years ago when it went up the western coast of Florida. It was forecast to go in near Tampa but went in well north of Fort Myers. The media went nuts but the landfall was in the broad forecast place (the cone) and was in the hurricane warning area. It’s for that reason that the NHC reiterates not to focus on the specific spot of the landfall. In the case of Hanna, it will be important to remember that as the geography will make it very difficult. Hanna is not forecast to become much more than a minimal hurricane and the spaghetti intensity models are not enthused about making it much more than a tropical storm. At this point, with the environmental conditions as they are, it appears this will be mainly remembered as a rain maker, hopefully some of that will get to eastern Tennessee that needs the rain badly. The 5 pm National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion is below.

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 5PM

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 5PM

I still think that Tropical Storm Ike is a potential troublemaker. A ridge expands and builds in taking Ike almost due west after it initially moves WNW prior to the

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 18Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 18Z

expansion of the ridge. One of the models on the Spaghetti Intensity Graph rapidly take this to nearly a cat 5. The boys at the National Hurricane Center are discounting this model….though they did mention it in the discussion, which raises my eyebrow a bit. Nevertheless, conditions are decent for development and if the ridge does what it is supposed to do, then Ike would get driven toward Cuba and, presumably, into the Gulf. There are a lot of

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 18Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 18Z

things than can happen to mess Ike up but nothing really jumps out at me. It would run over the upwelled water of Hanna’s dawdling in the Bahamas. But, I suspect that the depth of the water is relatively deep so the upwelled water may not be that cold and Ike may be running fast enough that it won’t affect it too much. If it gets there, there are also the mountains of Cuba and perhaps Hispaniola. So, Ike had some hurdles ahead…but I still think he may be a trouble maker. We’ll see. The National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Ike Discussion is at the bottom.

Tropical Storm Josephine NHC Forecast Track 5 pm 0902

Tropical Storm Josephine NHC Forecast Track 5 pm 0902

I’m blowing off Josephine for now because its so far away. But, it may end up getting into the ridge that is steering Ike and after getting drawn northwest by a trof in the Atlantic, start moving more westward.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE
SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER
12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. BY
TOMORROW…GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF
JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES…AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE
TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO…IN
LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX…WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02. TRACK
MODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON…AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN. SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER…UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A
MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. IN ADDITION…THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF
APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. IN FACT…THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT
EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 72.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING…IKE HAS
WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER
EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY…
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.

IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE…STEERING
IT WESTWARD…IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5…THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET…
WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS…SHOWING A SLIGHT
SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN…
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM…
BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT…THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW
PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS
IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE
AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME.
STILL…THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM…BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.2N 46.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.3N 51.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 55.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.6N 57.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 63.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 69.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 75.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

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