Gustav Is A Pretty Boy; Hanna Is Getting Ready; Ike Looks To Crash The Party


for a more recent update on all of the tropical activity, CLICK HERE

To Track Hurricane Gustav via radar loop, CLICK HERE. You may be able to navigate to create at least a partial Hurricane Hanna Loop as it may be close enough to radar installations to see some of it.

Tropical Storm Gustav Forecast Track 0902 11pm

Tropical Storm Gustav Forecast Track 0902 11pm

So far, Gustav does not seem to be too interested in slowing its forward progress, though the radar imagery that I’m looking at as I type does seem to indicate some

5 Day Forecast Rain Total Thru Sat Eve.

5 Day Forecast Rain Total Thru Sat Eve.

slowing going on. It still has a very impressive satellite image that looks much better structured than it did on Sunday night as it approached Louisiana. The forecast has been money so far and the progs all indicate that it gets stuck in West Louisiana or East Texas. While rainfall totals have been manageable so far due to its moving right along, the next 4 days still produce another 10-15 inches. So for it’s been interesting in that there were numerous tornado reports well away from landfall. I counted at least over 80 tornado reports out of the Jackson, MS, Mobile, AL, and Tallahassee, FL weather offices today. Southwest Alabama and SE Mississippi have received some of the heaviest rainfall of the day as they’ve been raked by bands coming off the Gulf. I’m not going to post the spaghetti stuff for Gustav any longer. I’m going to turn my attention to Hanna and Ike. I think Ike may be a trouble maker down the line.

Hurricane Hanna Forecast Track 11pm 0901

Hurricane Hanna Forecast Track 11pm 0901

Hurricane Hanna: It’s been dawdling and will continue to do so, flirting with the Bahamas with a general drift with a southwesterly component. Its expected by Wednesday to get caught up in a ridge building in

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 00Z

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 00Z

that will steer it around the ridge to the SE US. Still looks like a wide area 200 miles south and 300 miles north of Savannah, GA will get whacked by the end of the week. Tough call given the angle of attack in

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 00Z

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 00Z

relation to the coastline. Right now, north of Savannah is the track. Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Models have a general consensus with the track and the intensity is forecast for moderate strengthening. As long as it lurks over the same spot though for the next day or so, it will have a tough time increasing in intensity and if it stays there too long, it may even lose some punch. Upwelling, you know?

Tropical Storm Ike Forecast Track 0901 11PM

Tropical Storm Ike Forecast Track 0901 11PM

Tropical Storm Ike: This guy is a bit troublesome. Some of the models want to really ramp this guy up and it would appear that the idea is that the ridge that drives Hanna north, expands and gets wide a fat, which means that Ike will just rumble along to the west and is forecast to move into the Bahamas by the end of

Tro;pical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 00Z

Tro;pical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 00Z

the week. If that ridge maintains itself, then there is no reason to think that ole Ike may just continue to move along due west. Now, the ridge can’t last forever so there are a lot of variables with it. Any

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 00Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 00Z

weakening and it turns north. Most of the models though for the foreseeable future have Hurricane Ike emulating his namesake and nemesis of Wyatt Earp: Ike Clanton. Go west, young man!

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