It’s Getting Active: Hurricane Gustav, Hurricane Hanna, Tropical Storm Ike-Spaghetti Models, Radar, Forecast Track…you name it we got it


NHC Atlantic Overview 5pm 0901

NHC Atlantic Overview 5pm 0901

For an interactive radar which you can create a Hurricane Gustav Radar Loop or make a Hurricane Hanna Radar Loop as it approaches, CLICK HERE.  Simply navigate to whatever location you like. It goes to street level mapping and has a looping feature (animate) and you can add clouds and lightning.

The tropics are getting quite active as indicated above.  We have Hurricane Gustav dying out. But, I’ll tell you what…I still think that we got lucky ole Gustav ran out of water.  It looks pretty impressive and symmetrical over Central Louisiana. We have Hurricane Hanna. We have Tropical Storm Ike and a very strong tropical wave coming off of Africa as well as two other characters out there.  So, we’ll be long on graphics and short on commentary this time around. 

Hurricane Gustav Forecast Track 5pm 0901

Hurricane Gustav Forecast Track 5pm 0901

Gustav: National Hurricane Center did one of the best jobs I’ve ever seen on the

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0901 18Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0901 18Z

forecast track. It went almost exactly where they said it would 72 hours and 1000 miles out.  It will be a big rain maker in East Texas and Louisiana.  It’s gonna stall out and produce up to 2 feet of rain in spots.  We in Louisville would like some rain from Gustav and  a front is coming down that will pick up the moisture. But around the time the front gets here at the end of the week, Hurricane Hanna will be making landfall somewhere on the Southeast Coast.  The dry air being drawn down from the northeast and sinking

5 Day Rainfall Forecast Through Sat AM

5 Day Rainfall Forecast Through Sat AM

air ahead of the storm should suppress the rain around the Ohio Valley.  Notice the rain amounts on the 5 day rainfall forecast for that from Gustav and from Hanna and the big donut hole over the Ohio Valley.  That happens quite often around here this time of year.  Then Hanna moves up the east coast and behind it in the Bahamas comes what will likely be Hurricane Ike.

Below are reports from between 4 am and 4:30 am on Monday for the Pilot House near Southwest Pass which basically is the mouth of the Mississippi River well South of New Orleans.  Numbers are in knots so you see they had sustained winds for a time near 90 mph with gusts to 115 mph.

09 01 4:30 am ESE 75.0 94.0 – – – – 28.85 – 78.4 90.9 – – – –
09 01 4:24 am E 74.0 94.0 – – – – 28.86 – 78.3 90.9 – – – –
09 01 4:18 am E 79.1 100.0 – – – – 28.87 – 78.1 90.9 – – – –
09 01 4:12 am E 75.0 93.0 – – – – 28.87 – 77.9 90.9 – – – –
09 01 4:06 am – 75.0 102.0 – – – – 28.89 – 77.9 90.9 – – – –
09 01 4:00 am E 75.0 96.0 – – – – 28.91 -0.51 77.9 90.9 – – – –

Here is the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Hanna as well as Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Models and Forecast Track… Followed by the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Ike Discussion with the corresponding Forecast Track and Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti model.

HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

Hurricane Hanna NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0901

Hurricane Hanna NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0901

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT.  THESE
NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR
POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  GIVEN HANNA’S
TENACITY THUS FAR…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL
BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR.  AT DAY 5…HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE
INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN. 

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model 0901 18Z

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model 0901 18Z

THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING.  HOWEVER…A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE.  WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW
DISSIPATED…THE CYCLONE’S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC.   AFTER THAT…GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF
IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.  UNTIL
HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE
MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0901 18Z

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0901 18Z

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 22.2N  72.6W    70 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 21.9N  72.9W    75 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.8N  73.5W    75 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 22.1N  73.9W    75 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 23.1N  74.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  78.0W    85 KT
96HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  81.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 39.0N  80.5W    25 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0901

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 5pm 0901

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED…CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS
BASIS…THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH
AND THE LOW SHEAR…IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0901 18Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0901 18Z

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM
IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER…AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD…THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT…THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0901 18Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0901 18Z

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 17.7N  40.6W    45 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N  42.8W    50 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N  45.5W    60 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N  48.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  51.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N  58.0W    80 KT
96HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  64.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N  69.5W    80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

One Response

  1. I enjoyed reading it. I need to read more on this issue…I am admiring the time and effort you put in your blog, because it is apparently one great place where I can find lot of reusable info..

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