Hurricane Gustav Headed For Monday Morning Louisiana Landfall


for a more recent update regarding Hurricane Gustav as well as reports on Hanna and TD 9, CLICK HERE

For a Radar Loop of Hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE. It will default on the Ohio Valley but you can navigate to anywhere you like. As of 11pm EDT on Sunday, the eye was visibile on radar. You can zoom to any location to street level. You can also add clouds, lightning and computer generated analysis of any part of Hurricane Gustav, or any other part of the country.

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 11pm 0831

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 11pm 0831

Hurricane Gustav is behaving in a rather interesting manner and it’s probably a good thing its running out of room. The outflow to the south has been inhibited

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 11pm 0831

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 11pm 0831

all day due to a southwesterly shear. That prevented the storm from really regaining strength while it was over some of the warmest water of the Gulf of Mexico. The center was ragged, the eyewall was open in various quadrants and the cluster of biggest convection wasn’t over the middle. Late afternoon and Sunday evening, suddenly, the pressure began to drop, the Big convection started getting going over the center of circulation, the eye became closed and the

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0901 00Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0901 00Z

storm started looking a little more symmetrical. There even appeared to be a little bit of an outflow redeveloping to the south. But, the winds did not increase that much. The hurricane hunters report a little dry air

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0901 00Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0901 00Z

working its way into the storm as well as some warming cloud tops. So, the conclusion is that the storm won’t get too much stronger. But, methinks its a good thing its running out of room because with the reorganization going on, it might be headed toward an up cycle. The track on the spagetti model is very well clustered very near to the official forecast track. As of 11pm the winds were 115 mph with gusts to 140 mph. I’ve seen seas of 35 to 45 feet offshore. At 11pm EDT a buoy about 70 miles south of Dauphin Island, AL with 25 foot seas with winds at 41 kts gusting to 52 kts. The pilot’s station at Southwest Pass had 39 kt winds with 50 kt gusts. Both those locations were about 125 miles from the center at the time.

5 Day Forecast Rain Total Mon-Fri

5 Day Forecast Rain Total Mon-Fri

With a wobbling of the storm and some variances, the storm should pass from probably say 40 miles either side of Port Fourchon with a swipe to the right being more problematic for New Orleans and a move closer to Vermillion Bay less so. The way it looks like on radar though…it would seem that the eastern shot may still hold. Anyway, While the storm surge is projected at some 10-15 feet, I am still curious how all of that water piling up east of New Orleans is going to behave given that the only real place for it to go is up through Lake Borgne. I’m not so sure that it won’t be a problem, particularly for parts of New Orleans east of the Industrial Canal. It will be rough going once on shore because the storm will slow to a crawl over west Louisiana and East Texas. Rain totals of 1-2 feet over a few days will not be out of the question. Landfall is projected at mid to late morning on Monday with the storm near Lafayette LA and winds diminished to near 100 mph.

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO…HOWEVER…THERE HAS BEEN
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING…SEEMS TO HAVE
STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 100 KT…WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW
MINUTES AGO…AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED…
SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA. DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
FROM THE SOUTH. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS…THE
GFDL…HWRF…SHIPS…AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING
TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AFTER THAT…AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE…THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY. AS BEFORE…THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF…IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 27.3N 88.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W 85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W 50 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W 30 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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