Hurricane Gustav Still Dangerous But Not Quite As Ferocious


FOR A MORE RECENT UPDATE ON GUSTAV, CLICK HERE

To track Gustav as it approaches the US coast using a radar that you can navigate yourself (down to street level), CLICK HERE. It will default to the Ohio Valley but you can take it anywhere any time and make it loop (animate) put on clouds, lightning and even have some computer generated analysis.

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0831

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0831

Hurricane Warnings have been hoisted from Cameron, LA to east of Mobile. Winds at

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 11AM 0831

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 11AM 0831

11am were placed at 120 mph with a pressure rise to 962 mb. The storm continues to not recover well from its encounter with Cuba as the upper level environment has not been friendly. Modeling data is also coming around again to a slightly more western landfall.

Some of you may have noticed on the satellite imagery last night that the southern part of the outflow seemed to be missing. Well…that has been due to a shear with a sourtherly component. And in the NHC discussion, the indications are that a guidance model suggests that will persist. The storm is over warm water now and this is the time of the best opportunity for restrengthening so if its got its hat getting knocked off then the

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0831 12Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0831 12Z

opportunity may be slipping away. And, you will note that the shearing is forecast

Hurricane Gustav spaghetti model intensity graph 0831 12Z

Hurricane Gustav spaghetti model intensity graph 0831 12Z

my data to continue so the potential for an extraordinary storm is diminishing. That’s good given the current forcast track. As for that track, there are some indications that the track may indeed be farther west than the current forecast. The real consensus for the spaghetti model is back to along the eastern coast of Vermillion Bay. Tough road for Franklin, New Iberia and Lafayette. This storm will also prove problematic for inland concerns in western LA and East Texas as this guy will probably be a big rain maker as it lumbers along after landfall. The farther west it is, the better New Orleans will fare. This reduction in ferocity creates a different scenario possiby for New Orleans but the storm should still be considered to be dangerous, because it is. Here is the National Hurricane Center Gustav Forecast Discussion for 11AM:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008

1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC…WITH THE COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT…IT IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 962 MB…ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT…AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK…WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET…AND THUS LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR…THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES…STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS…OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW MOTION…THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD…THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR….AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT…COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY…SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT NOW…AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HR…WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR…AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

One Response

  1. Is this the will of God? Is this a punishment? Many people are confused and threatened by obviously repeated nature of the hurricanes…

    Is there anything that could be done at the individual level to change the situation?

    Kabbalah suggests that we can avert a bleak scenario for our lives by creating a new scenario, one in which we decide to change our egoistic nature before our suffering leaves us no other choice. It teaches us how to develop in harmony with nature – how to perceive ourselves as one integrated human organism, instead of as separate individuals.

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