Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Models Shifting West But Forecast Track Still Relatively Unchanged


for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

For Access to a Radar that allows you to track Gustav as it approaches the US by zooming in to street level, making a radar loop, put in clouds and lighting, CLICK HERE. It will default to the Ohio Valley, but simply navigate it to the Gulf Coast or anywhere else in the nation.

Check out the Report from some ship that found itself in Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico….that’s 60 knot winds and 45.9 foot seas.  Hope they took their dramamine.

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON     DIST   HDG   WDIR    WSPD     GST    WVHT  

SHIP   S 1800   27.80  -86.00  150   0     50       60.0     –    45.9 

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 5 PM 0831

Hurricane Gustav NHC Forecast Track 5 PM 0831

Hurricane Gustav is behaving a bit oddly as it moves along.  It has picked up speed.  It is trying to get itself together as more convection is blowing up and

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 0831 5PM

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 0831 5PM

pressures continue to fall, at 5pm down to 957 mb.  But, the wind remains at 115 mph, the convection is not symmetrical around the center, the eye is ill-formed and often with an open quadrant and the outflow to the south remains poor .  The forecast is for a landfall wind intensity of around 130 mph with higher gusts.  The storm surge is projected at 10-15 feet but I still wonder about the water piling up in Lake Borgne.  The track though remains in question.  As I have been pondering for several days, the track may still be a bit west of the current forecast

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0831 18Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0831 18Z

track.  Correspondingly, the NHC has extended the Hurricane Warning all the way to High Island, east of Galveston.  The Spaghetti models have numerous models taking the track farther west to the west side of Vermillion Bay. A few still want to

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity graph 0831 18Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity graph 0831 18Z

take it farther east.  This is still a formidable storm and the weakening of the system should be of great relief, but it will still be a dangerous, life-threatening storm.  It will get stuck inland over east Texas and rain fall of 1-2 feet is possible inland.

Here is the National Hurricane Center 5pm Hurricane Gustav Discussion:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS
THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED…WITH A HINT OF
AN EYE RETURNING.  ADDITIONALLY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB.  ON THE
OTHER HAND…THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE
THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT.  ALSO…THE CONVECTION…WHILE
VIGOROUS…IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE
THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16
KT…WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY…WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS…MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF…SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN
AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE
LOUISIANA COAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER.  AFTER 48-72 HR…THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES…SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS…OR
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE
SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO…CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR…WITH A LOT OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CYCLONE.  THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
OF THE LOOP CURRENT…AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL…WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE
FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION…THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL…WITH GUSTAV
MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 26.4N  87.3W   100 KT
12HR VT     01/0600Z 27.9N  88.9W   110 KT
24HR VT     01/1800Z 29.4N  90.9W   100 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     02/0600Z 30.7N  92.7W    60 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.5N  93.9W    35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  95.0W    30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N  96.0W    25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     05/1800Z 32.0N  96.5W    20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

One Response

  1. I must be the smartest guy in the South. It is obvous that the New Orleans levys need to be taken down and rezone non-residential. You cannot continue to fight mother nature. New Orleans is the future Atlantis. Congress cannot say NO to anything. As a group they just refuse funding. for once I agree with the Congress.

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