Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Clustering; Pointing Toward Cajun Country


This was Gustav as it was over Cuba….its in the Gulf as of 11pm EDT Aug 30

FOR A MORE RECENT UPDATE ON GUSTAV, CLICK HERE

For an interactive radar that you can navigate and control to show clouds, radar imagery, radar loops and computer analysis as well as lightning, CLICK HERE. It defaults to the Ohio Valley but you can go to street level anywhere in the nation. As Gustav gets close to coastal radar installations, you can track its movement.

Louisville Weather: A big fat high is over us and the weather will be grand all Labor Day Weekend. Highs in the low 90s lows in the upper 60’s to near 70 with tons of sun.

NHC Hurricane Gustav Forecast Track 0830 11 pm

NHC Hurricane Gustav Forecast Track 0830 11 pm

Hurricane Gustav:

The 00Z model runs came in with perhaps the greatest consensus regarding the

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0831 00Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0831 00Z

track of Hurricane Gustav with just four models wanting to go West and four wanting to go East. The general consensus is just a shade farther east than the previous consensus which puts the mean track east of Vermillion Bay with a landfall near Port Fourchon and a track toward Lafayette. Thus, the official track is a shade farther east. The farther east that this storm ultimately goes is worse news for New Orleans. And remember, this storm is very large as is the high pressure area that is steering it. The world is 25000 miles in circumference. A variation of say 60 miles is miniscule on the anomoly scale. Yet, a 60 mile variation in the track will make an

US Naval Research Lab Forecast Track Graphic 0831 00Z

US Naval Research Lab Forecast Track Graphic 0831 00Z

enormous difference for New Orleans. As it stands, the current forecast track

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0831 00Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0831 00Z

makes me curious about the storm surge. While this track would put the Crescent City in the hurricane force winds but not the very strong winds of the eyewall, the water coming from the Southeast has nowhere to go but Northwest up Lake Borgne…through the Intercoastal Waterway and to the Industrial Canal…like Katrina. So, even with this track, it may be very problematic for New Orleans. It’s possible that the shift in some of the models that wanted to take it farther west now coming into the fold is a result of the initial motion this time around not having as much of a westerly component and instead going across Cuba at 315 degrees. I still think that the more western route may still be in play. Nevertheless, it is what it is. Because of the motion its moved in the past 18 hours, my suspicions of the track are waning. If it goes where the track takes it now, the boys at the NHC should all get a raise. But there are still many variables and that is why,

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 0830 11pm

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 0830 11pm

along with the size and intensity of the storm, that a Hurricane Watch remains in effect from High Island, East of Galveston to just east of Mobile at the FL/AL border. I”ve included the US Naval Research Laboratory’s version of the NHC forecast track as well as that put out by the NHC. Regarding the intensity, there are some potential inhibitors to the intensity but nothing overly substantial. Perhaps some slight shear and the NHC indicates that after going over some extremely warm water, there may be some pools of relatively cooler water that the storm will go over. Nevertheless, a strong Cat 4 hurricane at least remains in the cards with a projected landfall intensity of 135-140 mph with higher gusts.

NHC Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0830 11pm

NHC Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0830 11pm

Tropical Storm Hanna:

If you are wondering about Hanna…the spagetti model for it has done an about face and many models now take it back to the north and out to sea, perhaps anticipating the big fat high lifting out to the northeast. The NHC official track has changed to reflect this new data. Let’s get through Gustav first but east coast and Florida residents should keep an eye on Hanna.

Here is the National Hurricane Center 11pm Hurricane Gustav Discussion for Aug 30:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE EYE OF GUSTAV CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
HURRICANE WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER LAND…WITH THE EYE BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 120 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE STORM ABOUT 06Z TO DETERMINE THE
ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 13
KT…WITH 320/13 USED IN THIS PACKAGE. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING…WITH GUSTAV BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND THEN BY
AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR…CALLING FOR
GUSTAV TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. AFTER LANDFALL…THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV…WITH A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST AT THAT
TIME CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
12Z UKMET FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE
LOUISIANA COAST…WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRED DESPITE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D…
WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE EYEWALL. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THE
SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE NEXT 18 HR…THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AS GUSTAV MOVES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON THE OCEAN SIDE…GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…
THEN POSSIBLY PASS OVER A COUPLE OF COLD EDDIES NORTH OF 26N. ALL
GUIDANCE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR…SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT IN 24
HR…FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND
LOWER HEAT CONTENT…THEN FASTER WEAKENING OVER LAND. DUE TO THE
VARIOUS FACTORS…THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 23.1N 83.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 87.4W 135 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 28.3N 89.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 120 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 03/0000Z 31.5N 93.0W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 04/0000Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 05/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 25 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2 Responses

  1. Gustav, Gustav, Gustav… Blah, blah, blah. Just another opportunity for tv folks to go stand outside ini the rain and tell us we’re all gonna die. I bet that the French Quarter doesn’t flood when the hurricane hits. Probably because the French were smart enough (that’s right, smart French) in building the city center where it doesn’t flood, as severely anyways, as the surrounding areas. For everyone else… That’s what you get when you live in a hole by the ocean and the largest river in N. America. Hmmmmm…. Maybe we should have left those marshes by the coast alone?

  2. Absolute brilliance, Private Parts! With more outstanding and well thought out responses such as this, you sir are certain to make General! Carry on.

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