for a more recent update on Hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE
As was my suspicion…Gustav is increasing in intensity very rapidly. The 11pm report had it at 80 mph with a pressure of 974mb, though I had seen a recon flight of 970 mb. By 2:10 am, winds were reported at 100 mph. As I said in the previous post, it will probably continue to increase in strength rapidly and it is not out of the question for this storm to, for a time at least, be stronger than currently forecast, even though there aren’t too many models that support this supposition on my part. However, if you look at the Intensity Probability Table issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11pm, you will note that by Sunday, it has a 28% chance for it being at Cat 4 (131mph to 155 mph), second only to the 41% for it being a Cat 3 (111mph to 130 mph).
Here is the complete, most recent details and spaghetti models, etc…CLICK HERE
Here is the 2:10 AM EDT special update:
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH…155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.