Hurricane Gustav Has Devasting Potential


FOR A MORE RECENT UPDATE ON HURRICANE GUSTAV, CLICK HERE

As of 7 pm EDT on Saturday, the eye of Gustav is visible on this radar image and loop is visible on this US Interactive Radar. CLICK HERE now and track the storm and as it approaches the US coast, you can make a Hurricane Gustav Loop and track the eye yourself, 24/7.

Hurricane Gustav NHC 5pm Track 0830

Hurricane Gustav NHC 5pm Track 0830

Hurricane Gustav continues to be extremely impressive but that means its also

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 0830 5 PM

Hurricane Gustav Intensity Probability Table 0830 5 PM

extremely dangerous. The pressure has dropped off a tad more to 942 mb and winds have increased to 150 mph. That is sustained winds near the center, not gusts. Gusts are estimated at 185 mph. Right now its moving a shade north of northwest as it is being influenced by a ridge of high pressure building in to our area. As the ridge builds in, as long as it digs far enough south it should drive Gustav more to the WNW toward the Louisiana Coast. If the ridge is not as

Hurricane Watch 5PM 0830

Hurricane Watch 5PM 0830

expansive, then it goes east of the forecast track. If it is more expansive, then it goes west of the track. The 18Z Spaghetti models still show a couple tracks offset to the east, with two having a track that would devastate New Orleans probably worse than Katrina, while several are offset to the west of the track. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from High Island Texas, which is

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0830 18Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0830 18Z

near Galveston, to the FL/AL border and then a Tropical Storm Watch extends to south of Tallahassee. That is a huge area and it suggests what I have been saying which is that this track should not be taken as Gospel and there are many variables. Everyone in the Watch area should take heed. This storm will not go away. Aside from Cuba making for a slight decrease in strength, it really won’t mess things up substantially and the storm will regain intensity and possibly even more. At that

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti model 18Z 0830

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti model 18Z 0830

point, the intensity will fluctuate with normal eyewall replacement cycles. A good thing is that its tough for a hurricane to maintain a cat 5 status. The bad news is that the storm surge will probably be consistent with a cat 5 storm regardless of the intensity at landfall if it had been at a cat 5 level within 24 hours of landfall. I see nothing in the environment ahead that would suggest that this storm will be anything but very intense. Here is the 5 pm discussion:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF GUSTAV HAD BEEN HUGGING THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON…BUT IS NOW OVER WATER
IN BETWEEN THAT ISLAND AND MAINLAND WESTERN CUBA. AIRCRAFT FIXES
CONTINUE TO COME IN JUST ABOUT RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS GUSTAV HAS BEEN WOBBLING
SLIGHTLY…BUT THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS RELATIVELY
WELL-ESTABLISHED AT 315/13…WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HWRF…UKMET…AND
NOGAPS…WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STALL JUST OFFSHORE…HAVE
COME INTO THE FOLD WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND ECMWF…RESULTING IN A
CONSENSUS TRACK THAT FALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS AGREEMENT HAS ALSO RESULTED…HOWEVER…IN A
CONSENSUS TRACK THAT REACHES THE COAST A LITTLE FASTER. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY…BUT MAINTAINS THE CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST…ARRIVING THERE A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE. WHILE
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS…THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT WE CANNOT SPECIFY
EXACTLY WHERE OR WHEN THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…ALL OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO WEAKENING
STEERING CURRENTS…WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…BY FORECASTING A DRAMATIC SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED OVER LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS…AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE RECON CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO STEADILY FALL…WITH
THE MOST RECENT VALUE BEING 942 MB. A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 143 KT
AT 700 MB WAS JUST REPORTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL…WHICH
SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 130 KT. MODEST
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD LEAD TO
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY AS GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA…BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
UNTIL 24 HOURS. AFTER DEPARTING CUBA…THE HURRICANE WILL PASS
OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL
LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO
NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.

THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES…INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
IN BOTH TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORMATS…DEPICT A RELATIVELY SIMILAR
RISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS ALONG A WIDE
STRETCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT THESE VALUES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH…AND CONSIDERING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK
TOWARD THE COAST…IT IS TIME TO ISSUE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: