Hurricane Gustav Getting All Dressed Up…It’s Got Somewhere To Go.


For a more recent update on Hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Gustav Satellite Imagery Via the US Navy Naval Research Lab 2215Z 082908

National Forecast Depiction Sunday AM 0831

National Forecast Depiction Sunday AM 0831

Louisville Weather relates to Gustav:

A big area of high pressure will build into to the Ohio Valley over the weekend and bring us dry and warm weather through Labor Day. That high will determine the fate of both Gustav and Hanna. As the ridge builds in, it will also build south. If the ridge builds in fast, then it could drive Gustav farther west. Some models want to take it to the Texas coast. If the ridge comes in slower or weaker, then Gustav conceivably could be driven farther east of the track…not just to New Orleans but possibly Mississippi. That is not a very popular solution on the spaghetti model chart. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for something in the middle and pretty close to the median of the cluster of model tracks. Should the storm make landfall west of New Orleans, eventually some of that moisture could make it back our way by late next week. If it’s east of New Orleans, then we Louisville get nothing. As the ridge builds farther east into the Atlantic, data indicates that it will pick up Hanna, drive it southwest and then west across Florida and into the Gulf.

Hurricane Gustav NHC forecast Track 11pm 0829

Hurricane Gustav NHC forecast Track 11pm 0829

Hurricane Gustav is looking extremely impressive on the satellite imagery. It is almost symmetrical now and has good outflow in all quadrants. The central

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti model 0830 00Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti model 0830 00Z

pressure continues to fall, most recently down to 970 mb. The winds are 80mph but will correspondingly increase in response to a fairly rapid fall in pressure. Even though the storm should interact with the western end of Cuba, that part of the Communist Island is generally devoid of any elevation to speak of and the storm shouldn’t be impeded so long as it continues to move foward, which all indications suggest that it will. With the storm getting itself together, I am even more of the opinion that this storm

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0830 00Z

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0830 00Z

will be, for a time at least, a bit stronger than forecast and will probably increase in strength pretty quickly. The weekend could be interesting on that front. The National Hurricane Center has slightly increased the intensity forecast to the high end of the Spaghetti model intensity graph. The forecast track has not changed much…just nudged a shade to the west. Instead of eastern Vermillion Bay…it now splits Vermillion Bay from Southeast to Northwest and then brings it to a crawl in East Texas. All indications continue to suggest that this guy will be a huge rainmaker for East Texas and much of Louisiana. While the storm surge could be as high as 25 feet in coastal regions of Louisiana from Callou Bay to Port Fourchon to Boothville. A storm surge such as that would actually cover a large part of the parishes on the coast. Some surge would also affect New Orleans with a surge of lesser amounts coming up Lake Borgne and the intercoastal waterway.

Katrina Flooding Extent Aug 31, 2005

Katrina Flooding Extent Aug 31, 2005

If the track holds, then the surge coming from the SE up Lake Borgne probably wouldn’t be as dramatic as it was with Katrina 3 years ago. But, if the storm were to actually make landfall farther east, yet west of New Orleans, then the surge potential would increase dramatically and thus the risk increases markedly. Remember, Katrina a day prior to This Date In History, did not hit New Orleans…it his Mississippi. The brunt of the storm surge went into Mississippi. Katrina was a cat 3 storm when it hit near Venice but it had a storm surge comparable to that of a cat 5 hurricane. I’m going to direct you to the blog I posted last year on the subject. (CLICK HERE…ITS WORTH YOUR WHILE) In the blog is a link to the New Orleans Times-Picayune website and a very good explaning map of how the flooding unfolded with a time line and graphical representation. It is very very informative and something the national media should review before it does any stories because they can learn something from it. It was very informative to me and helped me understand what the real story was when Snow White and I went down to help build some houses. BTW..New Orleans is my birthplace and am very familiar with it. My Grandfather was one of the key men in building the Superdome as well as numerous other large structures in that city and others around the world.

Anway….the spaghetti models have come into closer alignment on the track with about 2/3 of them going anywhere from the east side of Vermillion Bay to Cameron. A few still want to take it farther west. At this point, I would still suggest that there are variables out there that need to be considered. Landfall date or region won’t really be predictable for probably another 48 hours or so. Then the environmental steering conditions will have shown itself. Here is the 11pm discussion for Gustav. We’ll take another look at Hanna on Saturday afternoon or evening.

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY
ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING…AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED
88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND
MAXIMUM. RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA…BUT THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE…WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW
GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN
SHOWS SOME SPREAD. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA…WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL
ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR…THEN IS SLOWER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT LIES IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW. THIS…COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA…MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT…AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS
PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR. THUS…THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT…THE LGEM 97 KT…THE
HWRF 114 KT…THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT…AND THE GFDL
129 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING…THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER…
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE
FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES… WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.5N 80.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W 100 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W 80 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W 45 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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