for a more recent update on Gustav and Hanna, CLICK HERE
Louisville Weather: Well, we may not have gotten much rain from Fay but we sure did get snookered. The track of the storm Tuesday was too far East and South for much rain west of I-75. There were some very interesting tropical clouds on Tuesday night. Then on Wednesday, the low level circulation of Fay drifted close us and we got socked with low level clouds while the upper support finally got knocked off to the east where they got lots of rain. The remnant circulation will be kinda stuck and drifting so there’s a chance for clouds filling back in but the approach of a front should start to pick it up and take it away. Since we are on the dry side of the former tropical storm, the front on Friday will be moisture starved so rain will be limited. That will set up a fine Labor Day Weekend with warm afternoons and relatively mild nights and somewhat low humidity.
Tropical Storm Gustav: Tropical Storm Gustav is having a bit of a tough time but all indications continue that it will regain its former self and then some. However, it currently is barely enjoying Tropical Storm Status. There is no eye or eyewall and the pressure is a rather
pedestrian 999mb. If you look at the satellite its really tough to find a center. But, as the relatively small storm sneaks between Cuba and Jamaica it will have a chance to get its act together. The caveat of course is that if Jamaica or Cuba gets in its way. Nevertheless, even if it does interact with the circulation, this would probably just serve to delay development. The Spaghetti Models seem to be clustered with a solution of Tropical Storm Gustav swinging between Jamaica and Cuba and then moving into the Central Gulf before moving toward Louisiana. The idea is that the ridge starts to break down some and the storm moves around the ridge. The models generally have a landfall from between New Orleans and Sabine Pass. The official forecast remains generally unchanged with New Orleans as the target, though I have my secret theory of why that is the case. Twelve of Sixteen longer term models on the Spaghetti Intensity graph take the storm to hurricane strength anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 4 with most somewhere in between. There remains a lot of variables in spite of what the models think. When and how much the ridge breaks down will
be a key to the track. The ridge is already strong enough that the storm is actually moving with a southerly component, which I don’t think too many models had predicted. Whether or not there is southwesterly shear when it gets in the Gulf will have a bearing on the intensity as a trof moves in. Neither of these three variables are completely clear. Then there is the prospect of another high coming in and blocking the storm somewhere down the road. This is why the National Hurricane Center cautions of against taking the forecast as Gospel. The forecast has changed numerous times over the past several days and there will be more. Whether or not that has to do with the track or the intensity, or both, cannot be credibly assessed. I still personally think that all this will be a formidable storm and perhaps pose the most serious threat to the nation so far this hurricane season. At the bottom is the 11pm National Hurricane Center Gustav Discussion.
On This Date In History: Edwin Laurentine Drake retired as a railroad conductor in 1858 due to a bad back. He lived at the Tontine Hotel in New Haven, Connecticut with his wife and child. Some retirement, huh? Well, that’s why a fellow boarder named James Townsend talked him into investing in the Seneca Oil Company. See, it was widely known that the Indians in Pennsylvania had used crude oil that bubbled to the surface as an ointment for aching joints. Townsend thought that the stuff could be used as a substitute for whale oil and as a lubricant. Trouble was, no one knew how to produce it in large quantities.
So, Townsend talked Drake into investing his life savings of $200, gave him a large stake of stock and promised him a salary of $1000 a year for expenses. Drake took him up on it and moved to Titusville, Pa. Well, Townsend and his partners took back their stock from Drake, but that didn’t stop him. After finding out that having men digging with picks and shovels didn’t work, he came up with a new idea. He turned to drilling. He hired Uncle Billy Smith, who was a blacksmith who had salt-boring experience. By 1859, the directors of the company, including Townsend, had lost interest but Drake persisted. They built a derrick and bought a small nautical engine. Sand and clay clogged their drill hole but they persisted. Drake had a brainstorm….he decided to use a pipe to form a shaft for the drill. On August 28, 1859 Drake looked down the hole and saw something glistening. When he inquired as to what it was, Uncle Billy said, “it’s your fortune.”
Well, it would have been if he had patented his drilling apparatus and scheme. It would have been had he been able to hold on to his stock. Others rushed in and became overnight millionaires while Drake made a total of $16,000 over four years serving as an agent and justice of the peace. Then he lost it all on Wall Street. Later, he and his family were found living destitute and the state of Pennsylvania granted him a $1500 annual pension. After he died, a monument was erected in Titusville to the man who started the oil industry. That monument is about all there is to show for it.
Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Discussion
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7…ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST…IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF…UKMET…GFDL…AND GFS…WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL…AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT. GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION…MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS…HOWEVER…GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY…BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR…AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IT PROBABLY WOULDN’T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES…AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN