Tropical Storm Gustav Tangled In Haiti



for a more recent update on tropical storm gustav, CLICK HERE

NHC Tropical Storm Gustav Track 0827 11AM EDT

NHC Tropical Storm Gustav Track 0827 11AM EDT

Tropical Storm Gustav has not become a hurricane yet, which is probably my biggest surprise of the day. Gustav may have fallen victim to a Haitian Voodoo spell because it kinda just got hung up on the Peninsula. You can also tell from the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0827 12Z

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0827 12Z

Satellite pic that there is some shear messing it up as there is a nice outflow to the south but not much on the northern half. What’s probably going on is that the ridge to the north in Florida is building and has now blocked its progress. Now, it has a more westerly component and has begun to slowly drift away. Remember, storms just can’t turn on a time. If it’s going to be a sharp turn, it has to stop first or at least slow down. The story has not changed much with the main impediments to development being land interaction and sheer. For the near term, there will be a little of each so while it should increase in strength, it won’t do so real quickly. Once it goes into the Gulf, then that’s where the intensification will be the greatest and while the official forecast has now been ramped

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0827 12Z

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0827 12Z

down to just 100 kts….but, even the NHC admits that the intensity forecasts are not that great. But, I think what they are hanging their hat on keeping a lid on the intensity is the possibility of a southwesterly shear on down the road. It’s also possible that at this point they don’t want to unduly scare the people of New Orleans. I mean they already have pointed a hurricane directly at them when the certainty of the track is not great…why pile on with an intensity that is also highly suspect. Here is the discussion:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 GUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI. HOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT…BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR THAT INTENSITY BY NOW. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM HAITI. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5… SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOTWITHSTANDING…THERE IS VERY LITTLE…IF ANY…SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. INDEED…IF ONE LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE…IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1…CATEGORY 2…OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…290/4…APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING. A 500 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5. ONE SHOULD NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 74.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W 80 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

2 Responses

  1. Hi Bob

    Just wanted to send you a quick note from South Florida. I check your blog with every new release from the NHC, and I really enjoy your commentary and perspective on “all things hurricane”🙂 Thanks for taking the time to blog about it, I’m glued!

  2. Thanx Corgi Girl. I try to keep up. I’d invite you to snoop about the blog and entertain yourself with This Date In History!! I may provide you with items that you never thought was important, and probably will conclude that it indeed is not! But who can deny the Nudist Prophet?!

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