Tropical Storm Gustav Not Playing Ball


for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

Someone forgot to clue in Tropical Storm Gustav on the forecast because it’s not playing along. After it got blocked by the ridge, its just been sorta drifting to the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0827 18Z

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0827 18Z

west, which means its circulation has been getting disrupted for quite some time over the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. I believe that they are some 10,000 feet. Actually, its not too unusual for a storm to get stuck before a new steering flow comes about and it is moving, albeit slowly. As it gets more into the flow, it should begin to pick up forward speed. The official forecast track from the National

NHC Gustav Forecast Track 0827 5pm

NHC Gustav Forecast Track 0827 5pm

Hurricane Center is not too different from the previous outlooks and is similar to most of the spaghetti model. While there is a bunch of hubub in the media because the NHC forecast takes aim at New Orleans, you can read in the discussion much uncertainty. In past discussions they have intimated that there might be a slight

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0827 18Z

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0827 18Z

southwesterly shear when it gets into the middle of the Gulf. That would tend to disrupt the upper support and inhibit outflow and therefore intensity growth. This time, they mention models suggesting a weaking in the steering currents once it gets into the Gulf. While they keep the track similar, the NHC slows down the forward progress a tad but the discussions indicate that there are many variables. Bottom line is that there are many scenarios for Gustav. My guess is that it will be a big bopper. In spite of what I guess, there is nothing that can reliably give exact maximum strength, how it will maintain itself and where it will make landfall or how strong it will be at this time. Interests from Pensacola to Corpus Christi I would think would want to monitor this. There is no consensus among the models on the Spaghetti Intensity Graph.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999
MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM
WEAKENING…ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA…LIKELY
TONIGHT. STILL…THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST
STRENGTHENING…AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/03. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS…THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST…TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY DAY 5…SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN
A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. IN GENERAL…THE TRACK MODELS HAVE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV’S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5…AND IT
IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.1N 74.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 78.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

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