Tropical Storm Fay Depressed But Drenching Gulf Coast; Not the Only Game In Town


for a more recent update on fay and other items of interest in the tropics, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

5 Day Rain Forecast Thru Thursday Night

5 Day Rain Forecast Thru Thursday Night

Fay is now a Tropical Depression and its slow trek across the Gulf Coast continues and rain totals are becoming

0823 11PM Fay Forecast Track

0823 11PM Fay Forecast Track

reminscent of Hurricane Dora that took a similar track in 1964 and produced record flooding.   As of 8pm EDT, Tallahassee reported  a 24 hour rain total of 9 inches and it continues to rain.  To the east of Tallahassee, radar estimates go beyond 11 inches.  The Hydrometerological Prediction Center (HPC) has a 5 day outlook for a large part of the South Central Gulf Region to get some 10 to 12 inches of rain.  Much of the rain in Central Georgia will be less and will be

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 0824 00Z

welcome. Elsewhere, the potential for catastrophic flooding is ever increasing.  If you look at the rain fall prediction, you notice that the Ohio Valley gets about 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rain.  I suspect that we will see the best chances for welcome rain in Louisville on Thursday and Friday, but do not expect the extreme rain that will be occuring in the Dixie states as the storm ends up in Central Mississippi where the moisture will be bottled up for several days before stringing out ahead

0824 00Z Invest 95L Spaghetti Model

0824 00Z Invest 95L Spaghetti Model

 of a front late in the week. 

While this is going on, there are two tropical disturbances.  One I have been monitoring and sharing for several days now, Invest 94L.  It is moving into the Carribean.  Many models

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 00Z 0824

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 00Z 0824

have it intensifying rather rapidly and the National Hurricane Center gives it a moderate chance for development.  On the one hand, the models have been advertising development for several days now and it has done nothing and has gone on a track much farther south than earlier indicated. In other words, the spaghetti models were all wrong.  However, when this many models move toward intensification, it deservers monitoring.  If you look at the bottom, you will see that the satellite imagery from early Sunday morning indicates that it looks to be coming together.  The other guy is Invest 95L and right now all data suggests that, even if it does develop, and it looks pretty decent, it has the probabilty at this time of being mainly a maritime concern.

0824 Invest 94L Satellite 0215Z

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