Tropical Storm Fay And Two Little Buddies


To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Fay 5PM NHC fcst NRL Graphic

Fay 5PM NHC fcst NRL Graphic

I’m not going to do too much on Fay this time around as the story is about

US Tropical Cyclone Deaths

US Tropical Cyclone Deaths

the same which is the intensity of the storm is pretty much a moot point as the rain totals will be the big story and the greatest threat to life.  You will find a pie chart that shows that statistically, the greatest cause of fatalities in the US from tropical cyclones is inland, freshwater flooding.  There have numerous deaths in Florida and I would think that the total will increase.  A couple of feet of rain in the panhandle will rival that of the east central peninsula and similar totals are probably not out of the question for South Alabama, South and Central Mississippi 0823 Invest94L Sat 2115Zand Alabama.  A front will come down from the northwest on Sunday and that will hold the moisture from Fay in the Dixie states.  Some sinking air around the storm will serve to suppress showers that might otherwise be triggered by the front in the Louisville area.  But, there might be a few on Sunday or one or two on Tuesday.  Its really not until the end of the week that another approaching front will help draw up the moisture from what is left of Fay.  

There are two other systems of interest out there. If you look at the satellite photo of Invest 94L it doesnt look too good but its trying to get itself back together an may prove to be a problem in the Caribbean.  Invest 95L has a satellite photo that suggests it may have a decent chance of beating its0823 Invest 95L Sat 2115Z longer living brother, 94L, to become Gustav. 

Several models continue to make that mainly a storm of maritime concerns, but it certainly bears watching as its a long way out and a lot of things can change over the next week.  Here is the 5PM Fay National Hurricane Center Discussion.  For spaghetti models, see the previous post.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS…THE CIRCULATION IS
GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER…STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY
COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY
THEN…THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT
LOW…IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 30.6N  86.3W    40 KT
12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  87.5W    35 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     24/1800Z 31.2N  89.7W    30 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: