Tropical Storm Fay May End Up in the Record Books


for a more recent update on fay and the other systems CLICK HERE.

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Spaghetti graph keep the storm along the Gulf Coast. That would suggest Fay Spaghetti Model 0822 18Z

Fay Spaghetti Model 0822 18Z
Fay 5PM Forecast Track 5pm 0822

Fay 5PM Forecast Track 5pm 0822

that the big fat ridge is getting bigger and fatter. As it stands, the NHC follows a track similar to what has been forecast with a curvature and rain out in northern Louisiana and North Mississipppi. But, for days now I have

suggested that the legacy of this storm would be rain and that has far exceeded even my expectations. The National Weather Service is warning people of the Florida Panhandle that this storm could cause flooding akin to what happened in 1964 with Dora that followed a similar path. I would suggest that, if

rain totals are the same then the flooding would be greater given there has been more urban development US Tropical Cyclone Deaths

US Tropical Cyclone Deaths

in the various watersheds. If you look at the pie chart, you will see that inland, freshwater flooding is the greatest cause of fatalities with tropical cyclones in the United States. Even more than the storm surge. The media tends to focus on the winds but often, a weaker tropical storm or even depression has caused tremendous damage. Recently, the Houston area was inundated by Allison,

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model

 

 

Here is the 5pm Aug 22 Discussion from the National Hurricane Center for Fay:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER…FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS…FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER…STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN…FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Fay 5PM Forecast Track 5pm 0822

Florida Rainfall 8/15 to 8/22

Fay 5PM Forecast Track 5pm 0822

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