Tropical Storm Fay One Tough Storm


To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

11PM Wed Night NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast track

11PM Wed Night NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast track

Fay is a rather interesting thing. I’ve been telling you since the storm was around

Fay Spaghetti Model 0821 00Z

Fay Spaghetti Model 0821 00Z

Haiti that it had a good structure and the only thing standing in its way from being a formidable storm was land. Well, the storm continues to have a pretty good structure, according to the satellite and radar depictions, in spite of spending almost its entire life interacting with land. It actually gained strength over Florida dropping to 988 mb and winds increasing to 65 mph. We have some thought that this was over Lake Okeechobee when it happened and that may have been a causation, though I’m not convinced that relatively small body of water (in relation to the storm) could do that all by itself. In any event, it even developed a small eye. Then it slowed down over land and started to fill and the pressure rise. When it finally emerged just offshore, it started to get stronger again with the pressure back down to 994mb as it just basically sits about 20 miles offshore.

As I have noted previously, because of the slow movement, that has allowed the big fat high pressure ridge to the north to build in. So, its going to get shoved back to the west before getting too far off the Florida Coast. That has to happen. Beyond that, there are still many questions. One that is not a question is that there will be lots of rain. It should ease up somewhat in Central Florida but not before they get 2-3 feet of rain. I betcha north Florida and South Georgia get some 10-15 inches at least. But with the ridge building, I have been watching to see if this guy doesn’t get shoved back into the Gulf of Mexico for a time. The boys at the NHC seem to be coming around to that because, not only have they shoved the official forecast farther south to the Gulf Coast, but they also mention the potential for the storm to go back to the Gulf. While this would cause it to strengthen some, I doubt if it would get to a hurricane as a couple of the models depicted in the Spaghetti Intensity Graph indicates. I mean, it’s never been a hurricane before. I still think that this guy will traverse the Dixie States and eventually have an opportunity to move up the Mississippi and Ohio Valley our way be midweek. Folks in the South should hope I am right. The alternative may be for it to sit in Northern Mississippi and rain itself out.

As for disturbance Invest 94L, It doesnt look so good right now but the previous spaghetti forecast maps and spaghetti intensity graph pretty much mirrors the 00Z 21Aug 2008 stuff so I’m not bothering to say more at this time. Here is the NHC 11pm Wednesday Discussion for Fay:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA…AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE…WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY IN A FEW HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…ALTHOUGH SLOWLY…WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA…SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW…GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT…THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST…AND SPENDS MORE TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF…IT COULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. IF…HOWEVER…IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK…IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: