Tropical Storm Fay Spends Too Much Time With Mickey and Goofy


For an Interactive Radar to track Fay click here.

08/20 NHC Fcst Track NRL Graphic

08/20 NHC Fcst Track NRL Graphic

Fay’s slow movement continues and because of that, it spent too much time at

08/20 Fay Spaghetti Track Model 12Z

08/20 Fay Spaghetti Track Model 12Z

Disney World. It’s slow pace not only weakened it further but will utltimately help to limit its time back over water as the ridge is building in. In general that takes the chances of it becoming a hurricane off the board. Though they discount the possibility, the fact that the NHC mentioned that Fay may return to the Gulf leads me to believe that they have considered the same scenario that I outlined in a previous post. Here is the NHC discussion for 11AM.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER…THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO THE CYCLONE’S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH…ABOUT 3 KNOTS… WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE…SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER…THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO THE CYCLONE’S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH…ABOUT 3 KNOTS… WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE…SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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