Tropical Storm Fay Still A Bit Mysterious But Certainly a Rain Maker


For a more recent update on Tropical Storm Fay, click here.

For a national interactive radar to navigate to street level and loop tropical storm Fay, ClICK HERE It defaults to the Ohio Valley but can be moved anywhere in the nation.

The general forecast remains in tact. The NHC is mentioning the possibility of the the storm regenerating

NHC Fay fcst track 11AM 0819

NHC Fay fcst track 11AM 0819

if it moves back offshore. Given the current structural integrity of the storm as it moves across Florida, which indicates to me that they feel like its a legitimate

Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z 0819

Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z 0819

concern. So, folks on the SE coast from Jacksonville to Savannah to Myrtle Beach may not only get heavy, persistent rain and wind but also the potential for higher tides will be increased. They needed rain in much of the area and there will be a great benefit from this storm but in some cases it may be a case of “be careful for what you wish for.” As you can tell from the Spaghetti model there is still quite a bit of disagreement in the models. Many scenarios still remain and the future of Fay probably won’t show itself for a couple of days.

As for Invest 94L, the NHC is not completely confident in any rapid development with the system as they

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z 0819

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z 0819

conclude that while there is some opportunity for some organization in the short term, in the longer term the upper support becomes poor. Nonetheless, the

Invest 94 Spaghetti Intensity Graph 12Z 0819

Invest 94 Spaghetti Intensity Graph 12Z 0819

spaghetti models continue to move the storm generally northwest to the north of Puerto Rico or around the Domincan Republic. Meanwhile the disconnect continues with the Naval Research Lab has a tropical storm moving into the Caribbean. Not sure if I understand that divergent conclusion. Anyway, 3 of the models on the Spaghetti graph take the intensity to hurricane status in the next few days, which is interesting. Nevertheless, it deserves attention over the next few days. Here is the NHC Fay 11AM Tuesday discussion.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN…AND IN FACT…RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. THEREAFTER…IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO
48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR…THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME…THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER…THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN…AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER…THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR
THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR
GEORGIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 26.7N 81.3W 50 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 20/0000Z 27.9N 80.9W 45 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 20/1200Z 28.9N 80.6W 40 KT…OVER WATER
36HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 45 KT…OVER WATER
48HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 80.9W 45 KT…OVER WATER
72HR VT 22/1200Z 30.6N 82.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 23/1200Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 86.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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