Tropical Storm Fay’s Future Clouded


for a more recent update on fay, click here

Track Fay’s Progress 24/7 by clicking on this US Interactive Radar (click here) that allows you to loop the image and zoom to any location in the nation to street level. Find out the weather for friends and relatives along Fay’s path or anywhere else in the country. There is also computer derived analysis of individual storms.

Fay is pretty much going on schedule but that will change soon. It crossed Key West at about

Fay NHC track NRL Graphic 5 pm 0818

Fay NHC track NRL Graphic 5 pm 0818

3PM and winds went calm there at that time. So, there was some sort of eye and the pressure had dropped to 998mb with the late afternoon

Fay Spaghetti  Track Model 0818 18Z

Fay Spaghetti Track Model 0818 18Z

Hurricane Hunter pass. It is trying to intensify and will get close to minimal hurricane status just prior to landfall near Ft. Myers. It takes a track similar to Charlie toward Jacksonville. After that, its way up in the air. Several models want to take it back to the west in the SE US. Couple want to take it back to the Gulf and some take it into the Atlantic. Others want to stall it in Georgia and the boys at the NHC keep going along with the ones that take it well inland though a building ridge will make that difficult. The official track starts to curl it around but I suspect that what will happen is that this guy slows down to a crawl in North Florida or South Georgia as it gets blocked by the high building in from the northeast. That in turn will drive it west. It will be interesting if it ends up back in the Gulf for redevelopment. It’s not necessarily probable but not totally out of the question. Bottom line is that there will be a lot of rain in the SE and I’m sure that Lake Lanier will be getting plenty of water so we don’t have to hear from the Weather Channel about that subject any more. Sometimes I think that they act like the whole world revolves around Atlanta.

Invest 94L NRL fcst track 0818 5pm

Invest 94L NRL fcst track 0818 5pm

Also…interesting situation with Invest 94L. Its a disturbance way out there. The Naval Research Lab track still maintains that it will be a

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model Track 0818 18Z

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model Track 0818 18Z

tropical storm heading toward the Yucatan Channel. The spaghetti models insist on a storm developing and moving north of Puerto Rico. That is a wide berth. But, I think the important thing is that both scenarios have a another developing tropical cyclone and all interests should pay attention. There is a weird weather pattern going on in the Lower 48 that is more reminscent of late hurricane season toward the fall. Fay didn’t behave as one might expect for August and this next guy that will probably become Gustav seems likely to misbehave as well.

Here is the 5pm discussion for Fay on August 18 from Jack Beven at the NHC.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER…AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ADDITIONALLY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB. HOWEVER…THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS
TO INCREASE…AS AIRCRAFT…RADAR…AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU
WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT
3 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM…AND THE TRUE
CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR…THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT…WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO
THIS PATTERN. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND
THEREAFTER. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…WITH A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A
SIMILAR FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC…FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND
MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR. FINALLY…THE GFDL
AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY’S
PROGRESS…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK…WHICH
CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED
BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT…THESE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THUS…THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WHILE
NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT…IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 24 HR…THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND…AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS
DISSIPATING. IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT…SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004…SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 24.6N 81.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 25.8N 82.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 27.4N 81.9W 55 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 20/0600Z 28.8N 81.7W 40 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 21/1800Z 31.0N 81.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 22/1800Z 32.0N 82.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 84.0W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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