Tropical Storm Fay Moving Through Florida Straits


For a more recent update on Fay, Click Here…

Fay can be tracked quite easily using the US interactive national radar. You don’t need to change websites as you move, the map goes anywhere in the country down to street level. Hit “animate” to loop so you can do a radar loop of Fay. It also does some computer generated analysis. Click to this link and then on the big Interactive Radar Icon. CLICK HERE FOR THE LINK TO THE NATIONAL INTERACTIVE RADAR.

Fay emerged off the Cuban coast this morning in decent shape. As it’s working up the trof that helped erode

Fay NHC 11AM 0818 fcst track NRL Graphic

Fay NHC 11AM 0818 fcst track NRL Graphic

the ridge and allowed the storm to turn. As a result there is some shearing going

Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z 0818

Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z 0818

on to the western side of the storm. This guy is going to have a tough time getting going before it runs into land again. While this storm may reach hurricane level, it probably will not be too much of a trouble maker and make actually be beneficial as it will bring needed rain to the southeast. The official track has not changed much. A couple of models want to turn the storm out to sea as a result of the trof along the Gulf Coast that I spoke of previously in this post and other before. In the previous post, I also talked about another trof that comes across us here in Louisville in the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The tropical models are re-building in the ridge in advance of the trof so that is why the storm is moving north. As I stated before, if this scenario unfolds, I suspect that the storm will get shunted east or northeast as it moves into the mid-atlantic state as a remnant. This will probably be the last Spaghetti Model that I show for Tropical Storm Fay as people get too hung up on the exact landpoint. I May reconsider but thats the way I feel right now.

Invest 94L spaghetti models

Invest 94L spaghetti models

Meanwhile, there is tropical disturbance 94L that is forming. The GFS wants to

bring this feature near the SE Florida Coast in 10 days. It has done that for two

Invest 94L Naval Research Lab Forecast Track

Invest 94L Naval Research Lab Forecast Track

consecutive runs. But there is a real disconnect between that and the official forecast out of the Naval Research Lab which has the storm approaching the Yucatan. Either way, this guy is probably one to be keeping an eye on. It looks pretty good. I had kept waiting on Fay and it finally came around. My guess is that this guy wont play so hard to get. 4 out of 6 models want to make it a hurricane in 120 hours but the NHC at at this time only gives it a marginal chance for development. It’s a long way out and will be monitored. If it does form, it would Gustav.

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