Tropical Storm Fay Still Behaving on Sunday


For a more recent update on Fay, Click Here.

AS FAY MOVES CLOSER TO THE US AND IN THE RANGE OF RADAR INSTALLATIONS YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TRACK ITS APPROACH WITH THIS NATIONAL INTERACTIVE RADAR THAT ALLOWS THE USER TO ZOOM IN TO STREET LEVEL AND LOOP THE IMAGE, AMONG OTHER THINGS. CLICK HERE AND CLICK ON THE INTERACTIVE RADAR WHEN YOU GET TO THE SITE.

Fay Track NHC graphic 11AM 0817

Fay Track NHC graphic 11AM 0817

I’ve already put in my two cents regarding the track. What I said previously still

Fay Spaghetti model 12Z 0817

Fay Spaghetti model 12Z 0817

holds true. Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center pretty much echoes what I have been saying as he points out the variables of the models. I still say that the turn is the key as to it’s ultimate fate. When does it turn and how much of a turn it takes. You know, I was thinking that if this guy is going to turn as sharply as the claim is that it will, then the forward momentum has got to slow down. A storm has mass and, like a ship, it cannot turn on a dime. This report indicates the forward speed has dropped to 11 knots. Even at that speed, if it were to go north, it would make a wide turn. If it does make a more gradual turn, then it may only catch the western third of Cuba which is relatively flat in relation to the mountainous center and east. It

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 12Z 0817

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 12Z 0817

seems to me

Fay Track NRL Graphic 11AM 0817

Fay Track NRL Graphic 11AM 0817

that such a scenario would support a better chance for development. It is interesting to me that the models seem stubborn. As I have mentioned before and Beven points out, there are still a couple of models that have a more northwesterly track and end up having the storm near Louisville. Also, one of the models on the intensity graph still takes it up to near 11 kts. Anyway, nothing has really changed from the previous report. Here is the official discussion from Dr. Beven.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 FAY APPEARS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION IN BANDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY…AND A SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM CABO CRUZ CUBA REPORTED 45 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11…A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN 6 HR AGO. FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR…BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF…GFS…AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE HWRF…UKMET…AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THEN…THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING…WITH THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER…THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48 HR…WHILE THE HWRF…WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER…FORECASTS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL…WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS…OR IF IT TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 20.5N 78.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 21.3N 80.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.9N 81.4W 55 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT…OVER WATER 48HR VT 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.0W 50 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 81.5W 35 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 22/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

2 Responses

  1. Will Fay’ rain hit Dallas?

  2. In general I would think not though it would not be totally out the question. Possible, not probable.

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