NHC On The Money With Tropical Storm Fay Track So Far


For a more recent update on Fay, Click Here

AS FAY MOVES CLOSER TO THE US AND IN THE RANGE OF RADAR INSTALLATIONS YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TRACK ITS APPROACH WITH THIS NATIONAL INTERACTIVE RADAR THAT ALLOWS THE USER TO ZOOM IN TO STREET LEVEL AND LOOP THE IMAGE, AMONG OTHER THINGS. CLICK HERE AND CLICK ON THE INTERACTIVE RADAR WHEN YOU GET TO THE SITE.

Fay NHC Fcst Track Graphic 11pm 0816

Fay NHC Fcst Track Graphic 11pm 0816

Tropical Storm Fay is progressing as the expected. So far the National Hurricane Center is doing a great job and now the models are coming into

Fay Spaghetti Model 00Z 0817

Fay Spaghetti Model 00Z 0817

closer agreement as to its future. Let’s hope they aren’t popping the champagne corks just yet because there are still a lot of variables at play but the time is drawing near when it will show itself. The agreement with the models is for the storm to skirt along the southern Cuban coast and then turn up the western edge of the Florida Peninsula. There are variations. 6 of the 15 models make it a hurricane. The official forecast takes it to 80 mph before landfall near St. Petersburg Florida. There is a trof across the SE to the Gulf coast that conventional wisdom would hold would work with the coriolis force along with the perifory of the ridge that is steering Fay to turn the storm out to sea. But, if you look at the spaghetti model tracks you see at least two models wanting to take the storm across the Florida Panhandle up into the Ohio Valley. We are not anticipating rain in Louisville as, for the reasons listed above, it seems improbable.

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 00Z 0817

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 00Z 0817

Obviously the

Fay NRL Track Graphic 11pm 0816

Fay NRL Track Graphic 11pm 0816

NHC agrees as do most other models. That would have to be a pretty good ridge set up to make that happen. In any event, its out there. One would think that the most likely scenario down the road would be for it to turn back to sea after bringing needed rain to the SE. But, I’m getting ahead of the game as I am talking about 5 or 6 days out and that’s not too wise. Other than that, the song remains the same. A note though….if you look closely, you will find a good number of the models in this latest package have the storm staying just off the west coast of Florida before it runs into the swamplands east of Tallahassee. Should that happen, it would increase the liklihood of it being a more formidable storm. The more time over water, the better chance for intensification and I think the only thing that will stand in this guy’s way from getting going is interaction with land. I’ve added the Navy Research Lab version of the track because it includes more specific cities more clearly as well as time marks. Here is the NHC Discussion from 11PM Saturday August 16.

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN
FACT…GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY…AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.
ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER…THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES…AND
IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS
A HURRICANE…BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS
INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS
TRACK…FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY…AND MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS
BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS…WHICH IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THIS TRACK…WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 76.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 80.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 50 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: