For the Most Recent Update on Tropical Storm Fay, CLICK HERE
If you look at the spaghetti map of all of the hurricane forecast models and compare it with the official
forecast, you will find that it is off to the east of most of the models. The boys at
the NHC are being conservative, waiting for more data to confirm the shift farther west. But, they’ve gone half way in that the track has the storm skirting the southern coast of Cuba, keeping the circulation offshore. The structure of the storm is decent for one over the mountainous regions of the Domincan Republic and once it gets over the water the only inhibitor will be the mountains of Cuba. The NHC also takes the track across the western third of Cuba instead of following a track lengthwise over the island which, again, will give it more opportunity to develop. Where they differ from the models is that they go ahead and turn it up Florida’s west coast and the make it a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall. But, if you look at the spaghetti intensity graphic, you see many make it much stronger. That is reflective of the models keeping the storm over the open Gulf farther west than the official forecast track. Bottom line is that if it follows the models track the liklihood of the storm becoming formidable is much greater.
What is going on here is that the storm is moving around a ridge centered in the mid Atlantic. A trof will come down and erode the western periphery of the ridge. The question is when. Don’t be surprised to see this guy go farther west than the forecast. The NAM is the only model that takes it east of the forecast track insisting on keeping it to the east of Florida. Models indicate that there will be a ridge of some strength somewhere in the Western Gulf that should prevent the storm from going too far west.