For Spaghetti Tracks and Intensity Initial Forecast for Fay, Click Here.
We’ve been patient waiting on Fay and it took a week but it’s now here and I told you that it would probably go from nothing to a tropical storm and voila, that is the case. I’m providing some data that is available but will wait until the 18Z data comes in for more detail. I will tell you it is moving west and is moving over the Dominican Republic and it’s mountains that will inhibit its development. Once it emerges between Cuba and the DR it will have a chance to recover and beyond that it will depend on how much of its circulation are over Cuba. Here is the initial report on Fay from the NHC. Click on the map to the left of the report for the forecast track. I can tell you that the forecast track is just about right down the middle of what the mid point between all of the hurricane models…perhaps nudged a bit farther west than the average. Again, I’ll post more when the 18Z stuff comes in.
TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN