Gov’t Uses Press To Gain Support For War; NHC Uses Hurricane Hunter Looking For Fay

We got a few passing showers that brought some welcome relief. Hope you were one of the lucky ones. This will be our last chance for rain through the weekend, though there may be a few lucky folks in the extreme southern part of the viewing area Friday afternoon. In spite of the need for rain, it should be relatively comfortable though.

SAT 22Z 08/14

Tropics Still Waiting On Fay….(EDIT-wait no more…here’s latest report on Tropical Storm Fay)

8/14 spaghetti track 18Z

8/14 spaghetti track 18Z

It appears that the boys at the NHC is being very conservative with this particular

08/14 NAM 18Z

08/14 NAM 18Z

storm. In the past I have written that I thought that they were pretty aggressive with developing storms or naming storms with not a lot of substance. This one looks pretty good on satellite but Jack Beven at the NHC says that the good convection is offset to the west of the circulation which is not strong at this time. This was confirmed by the Hurricane Hunter today but the NHC says its getting into an enviroment that is not hostile for development. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one either go straight to Tropical Storm Fay and skip the depression stage or it won’t stay at the depression stage for long. 14 out of 15 intensity models take it eventually to at least tropical storm strength with about half going to hurricane status. The NAM (eta) continues to deepen the storm into a formidable hurricane in the Bahamas by Monday morning. The GFS has the feature in about the same

08/14 spaghetti Intensity 18Z

08/14 spaghetti Intensity 18Z

spot at the same time but maybe as a minimal tropical storm. As I had mentioned

08/14 GFS 18Z

08/14 GFS 18Z

previously, the spaghetti tracks had been wanting to take it into South Florida and maybe the Gulf. But what troubled me about that was the general trofiness that we’ve had over the Eastern US that has brought the nice weather to Louisville and elsewhere. Well, the new spaghetti run seems to indicate that just about every model has picked up on this and it wants to take the storm off the US SE Coast. This makes sense. Unless the storm can get under the trof, it would seem to me that it’s unlikely it can get into the Gulf. BTW…the GFS suddenly no longer has any hint of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf in two weeks. Told you not to trust the long term prognostications. This happens a lot. A long term computer will put in a feature way out…then take it out…and often it suddenly reappears down the line. We’ll have to wait and see about that one. You can find thumbnails of the mentioned models and graphics. The NHC put out a special statement on disturbance 92L and it follows.

Here’s the 5pm update on the tropical disturbance 92L

On this Date In History: The United States Government worked directly with the media to stir up support for war with German on this date in 1915. The newspaper to the left is from the New York World on Aug 15, 1915 when it reported the tactics Germany was using. Now, to be sure, the stories were true but the World got the story from the federal government who leaked it under the condition that the source not be revealed. I guess that pledge got broken at some point in time because I’m sitting here writing about it and you are reading about it. Presumably, the secret wasn’t revealed until well after the war was over.

The Lusitania sunk by a German U-Boat on May 15, 1915 and most school history classes will point to that event as one that got Americans agitated. While it may have raised eyebrows but the American people remained largely isolationist and instead of real outrage, it was more like a collective yawn that was heard across the pond. But, with the sinking in the back of their minds, the American people got aroused when they heard from the World that Germans were planning on secretly buying all of America’s chlorine to prevent the US from selling it to Britain and France for use in poison gas. The Germans were going to secretly build munition factories in the US, take orders from the Allies and then not deliver and they intended to buy up so much incendiary powder that other companies would be unable to fill orders.

Pretty clever really. They were going to work within the American system to mess up the supply of their opponents. So, how did the Americans uncover this plot? They became the benefactors of a nitwit German spy. Heinrich Albert was a commercial attache at the German Embassy. He kept meticulous records of all the German covert operations in the US. He carried his notes in a briefcase on a train and Secret Service Agent Frank Burke, who was assigned to tail Albert, grabbed the case and ran off the train. Albert quickly realized his mistake and saw Burke running away. He gave pursuit but failed when Burke jumped on a streetcar and convinced the motorman that he was being chased by a lunatic. The motorman responded by skipping the next stop, leaving Albert out of breath and out of luck.

It was the leaking of the information to the media that got the American public to begin to relinquish their isolationist stance. But, it wasn’t the until the Zimmerman letter of 1917 that the US went to war when it was learned that Germany was trying to make a deal with Mexico to invade the US. I wonder if the information from the briefcase was leaked to the press in an attempt by lower level public officials to undermine President Wilson’s steadfast claim to neutrality. That practice continued with such incidents as the Pentagon Papers. Watergate and various leaks regarding the Iraq war…underlings who disagree with the boss running and telling the press. While some of these events may have created desirable results in your mind, it can be a dangerous practice to have loose cannons running around the government.


One Response

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