Are We Witnessing the Birth of Fay? Well, the answer is maybe or maybe not. If you look above you see two different charts. One is the projected track of the closest of three disturbances in the North Atlantic. It is also the strongest as of Sunday night. You can tell that most of the models have picked it up and they generally have it moving along toward the west northwest through the middle of the week ahead. The other chart is the intensity model and that tells a different story. Eight of the models make it at least a tropical storm by midweek. A couple even make it a hurricane. Others never take it to tropical storm strength with a few of them either not recognizing its existence or zapping it away after a day or so. The truth quite often ends up being somewhere in between the most pessimistic and most optimistic. This guy is pretty well organized and in all likelihood will not just go away. The boys at the NHC say its going to move into an environment that is well suited to support development and they are bullish on some sort of development. If it does develop it would be Tropical Storm Fay or potentially Hurricane Fay, unless one of the other two gets on steroids and develops faster. Here is the overall Tropical Discussion from late Sunday night that includes all three systems that they are watching.
New and Improved Fearless Forecast From Your Federal Government Regarding the Rest of the Hurricane Season:
The boys at the National Hurricane Center,,.well make that the NOAA Climate Prediction Center…has revised the forecast for the number of named storms in the North Atlantic this hurricane season from 12-16 to 14-18. They go on about this and that but methinks the truth is that there were more storms in the first two months of the year than the old crystal ball previously revealed so they put on their thinking caps and added a couple of storms to the list. They have upped the probability of it being a year more active than the typical 11 named storms from 65% to 85% with a 67% chance of their being on the money with 14-18 named storms. Nevertheless, they keep the old backside covered with a 10% chance of it being a typical year and 5% chance of a below normal year. I love this. While they don’t report the probability of there being more than 18 named storms, I’m sure it’s in the data. You see…they have stacked the deck. They cannot be wrong and this is not really a prediction per se. They don’t say “we will have….” Instead, they give odds like they’re handicapping the Super Bowl. But, you can bet the national media foofs will not be accurate and instead say the prediction is for 14-18 storms. Now, NOAA is trying to take the thunder from the National Hurricane Center so they have somehow but the boys at the Climate Prediction Center in charge of making hurricane forecasts so they will remain silent for now and allow the press to float the inaccuracy. If it comes to pass that there are 14-18 storms, then they will claim victory. If they fall short, then they will say it was not a prediction but instead a statistical analysis and then kick it back to the National Hurricane Center, even though they didn’t officially release the report in the first place. It’s called turning the heat up in someone else’s kitchen. In any event, here’s the story from NOAA and to the left is the graphic that was provided.
Here is the satellite image from the closest tropical disturbance as of late Sunday night: