Edouard Wants To Call On Galveston-Maybe Austin


Edouard FCST Track EVE 08/04

Edouard FCST Track EVE 08/04

Look to latest post for most recent information.

Track Tropical Storm Edouard from any location in the country using a US Interactive radar (CLICK HERE).  It allows you to loop the image and zoom in to street level.

To the left is the official track forecast (click the pic to enlarge) as of Monday evening from the US Naval Research Laboratory based on the NHC forecast.  The Spaghetti track below the forecast track to the left (click the pic) is a map of all of the computer models forecast. Notice the one guy that is the outlyer wanting to turn it north. That is improbable and that model has been trying to do that from the outset.

Oh…and it looks like the market got smart. They figured out that the storm would not affect oil production in the Gulf much so oil continued its fall by some 4 dollars a barrel and what disruption there is would not be sufficient to counter the perception that supply will outstrip demand in the future.  We should be happy there is such wisdom in speculation land.

Edouard Spaghetti Tracks 18Z 08/04

Edouard Spaghetti Tracks 18Z 08/04

Below that is the spaghetti track for the disturbance (click the pic)  in the Atlantic that most data indicates will stay out at sea but the NHC is keeping tabs on nonetheless.

Tropical storm Edouard looks to be right on track which is to Galveston.  Shouldn’t be a problem for the city as they have a 15 foot sea wall that was built following the Hurricane in Sept 1900 that was the greatest single natural catastrophe in the history of the United States.  The east side of Galveston and into the bay, perhaps into Texas city will see somewhat of a storm surge.  Normally, one would say the effects of the storm surge would be minimal but it may prove a bit problematic as the area has experienced subsidence over the years, partly due to the use of well water.  That issue has been addressed but

Dist Spaghetti Tracks 08/04

Dist Spaghetti Tracks 08/04

subsidence remains and issue. Places like Kemah and Seabrook may be affected with the bay and up the channel. But, in general, it shouldn’t be too bad. In fact, the west end of Galveston and especially toward Surfside and Freeport would have an offshore flow and rain may be relatively minimal since it would be on the left hand side of the storm. Rain will be welcome in the area though some minor flooding is likely.  However, this guy has legs and is not forecast to slow down nor loop around like Allison did. I would still be a bit on guard if I were in the hill country.  Data indicates the ridge may weaken a bit on the western periphery so San Antonio would be generally out of the woods should that hold true.  Therefore, the inland track has shifted north and rainfall may cause flooding issues, particularly in low lying areas of the hill country and also in the developed area of Austin.  But again, as long as the storm keeps moving, the overall affect may end up being more of a benefit than a detriment. Nevertheless, flooding will be something for those folks to take care for.  It looks much better organized today and is forecast to be a strong tropical storm and still has the potential to edge toward a minimal hurricane.  Landfall is still expected by mid to maybe late Tuesday morning.  Here’s the Monday evening NHC discussion:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 042053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND
FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING…WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW
IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS…BUT THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN’T
CHANGED MUCH.  THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.  STRUCTURALLY…THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION…WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE…WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL…WITH THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND SUPERENSEMBLE
STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD.  IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A
LOW-END HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  EDOUARD’S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST…AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE…AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE…AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 28.3N  91.4W    40 KT
12HR VT     05/0600Z 28.6N  92.9W    50 KT
24HR VT     05/1800Z 29.4N  95.0W    60 KT…JUST INLAND
36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  97.0W    40 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  99.3W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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