Edouard Forecast Tracks Shifts A Shade Prior to Landfall


Pragmatically, there is very little difference from the previous post.  Official forecast track has shifted a

Edouard Track 5 AM EDT 08/05

Edouard Track 5 AM EDT 08/05

shade but the storm will go wherever it will so it really doesn’t matter what the models claim.  It looks much healthier on satellite than on Monday.  The important thing is that it is moving near Galveston area as a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane and will continue to move into the Texas Hill Country, say from Brenham to Pflugerville and then on to Marble Falls. If the new track is valid, then the west end of Galveston and west side of Houston willl really be not that greatly affected and Beaumont and Vidor will take and even as far east as Lake Charles will feel a greater impact. Otherwise,  all of the comments in the previous post remain valid.  Track Edouard via an Interactive National Radar capable of zooming to street level and looping by clicking here.., Click on graphics to left to enlarge views of tracking map and spaghetti track.  Previous post has sea surface temperatures as well as spaghetti track for disturbance in Atlantic.

000

Edouard Spaghetti Track 6Z 0805

Edouard Spaghetti Track 6Z 0805

WTNT45 KNHC 050839
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008

WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM
OVERNIGHT.  SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER
DEFINED…HOWEVER THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL.
PEAK DOPPLER VELOCITIES WERE NEAR 65 KT AT ELEVATIONS OF 3000-5000
FT AND THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SFMR RECORDED SURFACE WINDS
OF 53 AND 56 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN.  ADDITIONALLY…THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE 68 KT OVER THE SAME AREA…CORRESPONDING TO
A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 54 KT.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT.  THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS HAVE A VERY HIGH SKIN TEMPERATURE BUT DO NOT HAVE A
PARTICULARLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS INCREASING SO DYNAMICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE
LANDFALL.  EDOUARD MIGHT STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING
THE COAST BUT…AS NOTED EARLIER…THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END
HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE
RATHER CLOSELY.

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE…AND IS NOW 300/10.  THE
STEERING FLOW FOR EDOUARD IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS…BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS
A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 29.3N  93.4W    55 KT
12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.1N  95.1W    55 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  97.2W    35 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.9N  99.3W    30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.8N 101.3W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     08/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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