Edouard Still Eyeballing Galveston; Watch on Radar


Look to latest post for most recently updated information.

Use National Interactive Radar Link to track Edouard on Radar down to street level with looping capability

08.04 Spaghetti Track AM

08.04 Spaghetti Track AM

0804 Sea Temps

0804 Sea Temps

 

The track and intensity forecast is about the same as Sunday night with the model tracks really coming into a pretty tight area. You can note that on the left. Also, you will find the thumbnail of the Sea Surface Temperatures which show the Gulf is plenty warm enough. Strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane to move into SE Texas Tuesday morning. Still think the biggest deal will be flood potential in hill country. Don’t be Surprised to see oil prices go up for no good reason. This will not disrupt oil production except that they remove men from the rigs for a day or so. There will be no substanative damage but the markets won’t care, methinks. They will bid up the price simply because this is going through the most densely drilled area in the Gulf. Hope I’m wrong on that one. Here is the 5 AM Monday Aug 4 NHC Discussion:

000 WTNT45 KNHC 040840 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008 NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND…A FEW HOURS AGO…THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE 0600 UTC…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT…BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME…IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB. I ASSUME THAT THE AIRCRAFT WILL SOON FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST …SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES…EVEN IN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME…IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT EDOUARD COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. THEREFORE THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/8. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL MOVE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE FASTER. AS ALWAYS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.1N 90.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 29.0N 93.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 29.7N 95.9W 50 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 06/0600Z 30.4N 98.1W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 31.5N 102.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0600Z…DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

2 Responses

  1. Goodness, I hope your wrong on the gas prices as well…..I hope, I hope!

  2. “In a lone bit of good news, oil prices came down a few notches today as forecasters predicted that Tropical Storm Edouard would not threaten Gulf Coast oil rigs and refineries. The nearly $4 drop brought oil prices to a three-month low, with the cost per barrel briefly dipping under the $120 mark, according to the AP.”

    Very happy that you missed on that forecast!🙂

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