Edouard Forms Off the Gulf Coast


Look to most latest post for most recent information.
TD 5 Track 08.03.08

TD 5 Track 08.03.08

 TO TRACK EDOUARD PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT.  YOU CAN ZOOM IN TO STREET LEVEL AND ALSO LOOP THE IMAGES

To the left is the track forecast (click the pic to enlarge) for Tropical Depression number 5 now Tropical Storm Edouard.  All models I have seen take it around a ridge along the Gulf Coast and into the Houston/Galveston area.  I have seen nothing to indicate that it becomes more than a tropical storm and continues moving after landfall on Tuesday on toward San Antonio, so that should limit the rain totals. An hour after they made it a depression and came out with the comments, a hurricane hunter passed through and found the pressure had dropped 5 mb in a very short time. So, it became Edouard.   While the models in general do not have a rapid intensification to hurricane status, he NHC indicates in the 1st discussion below that the GFDL model is insisting that it develops into a hurricane before landfall. Should that occur, it would be a minimal hurricane and at this time they are discounting that event but are monitoring the data to see if it warrants increasing the intensity.   Here is the initial NHC discussion followed by the second update which does not make it a hurricane at landfall:

TD 5 Sat 08.03.08000
WTNT45 KNHC 032033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE
AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.  BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS…WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA…WITH THE GFS AND
UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN
36-48 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT…WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED
APPEARANCE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL… WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  DUE TO
THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY…THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 28.2N  88.1W    30 KT
12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N  89.4W    35 KT
24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.5W    40 KT
36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.9N  93.8W    50 KT
48HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  96.2W    40 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W    20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

#####UPDATE INCREASING TD #5 TO EDOUARD#####

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO…IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB…A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF.  THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL…WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2200Z 28.1N  88.0W    40 KT
12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N  89.4W    45 KT
24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.5W    50 KT
36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.9N  93.8W    60 KT
48HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  96.2W    45 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

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