Tropics A Shade More Active


There are three areas being looked at by the boys at the NHC.  Two are in the Atlantic and one just off the Ala/Fl Coast.  Here are the IR photos and brief discussion for each.  The along the Gulf Coast is progged by most models to move west along the coast and into SE Texas.  Right now, I do not see any models that really develop this guy fully though it’s possible some climatology parameters may be at work there as well as perhaps the models not fully up to speed on the data.  Its not totally out of the question for this to develop better than the models suggest.


A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY…AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY…A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

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